Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, September 8! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
New England Patriots (+8.5) (-110) at Cincinnati Bengals
Report: Since 1999, single-digit NFL underdogs that won fewer than seven games the previous season are 252-173-18 ATS (59.3%) during the first three weeks of the regular season, including 41-26-3 ATS (61.2%) since 2019, covering by an average of +2.3 points per game. These road underdogs are 135-93-7 ATS (59.2%) in season-openers, including 20-12-1 ATS (62.5%) since 2019, covering by an average of +3.3 points per game. Since 1999, Week 1 road underdogs that didn’t make the playoffs the previous season are 109-70-5 ATS (60.9%), including 13-4 ATS (76.5%) since 2021, covering by an average of +6.9 points per game. Since 1992, Week 1 NFL teams that lost ten or more games the previous season are 118-78-5 ATS (60.2%) versus opponents that had fewer than ten losses the prior season, including 60-36-3 ATS (62.5%) since 2010, covering by an average of +3.7 points per game.
Since 1992, Week 1 NFL teams that finished below .500 the previous season are 100-65-5 ATS (60.6%) versus opponents that finished above .500 the prior regular season. Since 2018, NFL underdogs in games with totals of less than 42 points are 179-144-14 ATS (55.4%). Since 1989, Week 1 NFL teams that covered in no more than 1/3 of their games the previous season are 64-45-3 ATS (58.7%). Since 1989, Week 1 NFL road underdogs of fewer than 12 points (or home underdogs of greater than 6 points) that won six or fewer games the previous season are 96-53-6 ATS (64.4%), including 21-11-1 ATS (65.6%) since 2017, covering the spread by an average of +5.4 points per game. Finally, since 2005, Week 1 NFL favorites of at least six points are just 44-54-1 ATS (44.9%).
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (+1.5) (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL underdogs are 793-475-36 ATS (62.5%) versus opponents that are listed as underdogs of five or more points in their next game, including 128-59-6 ATS (68.4%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +4.8 points per game. Since 1999, single-digit NFL underdogs that won fewer than seven games the previous season are 252-173-18 ATS (59.3%) during the first three weeks of the regular season, including 41-26-3 ATS (61.2%) since 2019, covering by an average of +2.3 points per game. These road underdogs are 135-93-7 ATS (59.2%) in season-openers, including 20-12-1 ATS (62.5%) since 2019, covering by an average of +3.3 points per game.
New York applies to a very good 72-39-10 ATS (64.9%) scoring margin system of mine that invests on certain underdogs of three points or fewer during the first three weeks of the regular season. This situation is 40-14-3 ATS (74.1%) since 2016, covering by an average of +5.1 points per game. Since 2005, NFL home underdogs in games with totals of 45 points or less are 107-77-8 ATS (58.2%) during the first three weeks of the season. Since 2018, NFL underdogs in games with totals of less than 42 points are 179-144-14 ATS (55.4%). Since 1990, Week 1 NFL road favorites that had nine or more losses the previous season are just 16-28-1 ATS (36.4%), including 4-8-1 ATS since 2017, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.8 points per game.
New York head coach Brian Daboll is 22-13-1 ATS (63%) in his career with the Giants, the highest win rate over the last 20 years among coaches with a minimum of ten games. Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold is 21-35 SU and 22-33-1 ATS in his career, making him the fourth-least profitable quarterback since being drafted in 2018. Darnold is also 9-19 SU on the road and 5-9 SU as a favorite.
Sam Darnold’s Rankings Among Quarterbacks with 1,500+ pass attempts
- Completion Percentage: 66th
- Yards per Pass Attempt: 72nd
- Pass Rating: 77th
- Pass Success Rate: 80th
Finally, Minnesota falls into a very negative 53-85-6 ATS (38.4%) and 55-88-6 ATS (38.5) Week 1 situations that dates to 1989 and invest against certain road teams that won five or more regular season road games the prior season.
NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, September 10
- Since 1991, NFL non-divisional road favorites are 65-38-4 to the Under (63.1%) in Week 1 affairs, going under by an average margin of -3.4 points per game
- Since 1989, NFL road favorites that won fewer than eight games the previous season are 81-64 to the Under (55.9%) in Weeks 1-4 of the regular season, including 39-24 UNDER (61.9%) since 2012
- Since 1999, Week 1 road underdogs that didn’t make the playoffs the previous season are 109-70-5 ATS (60.9%), including 13-4 ATS (76.5%) since 2021, covering by an average of +6.9 points per game
- Since 2006, NFL underdogs of 6.5 points or more are 46-27 ATS in Week 1
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are 59-35-1 ATS as underdogs under head coach Mike Tomlin
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