Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, September 29! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
New Orleans Saints (+2.5) (-110) at Atlanta Falcons
Report: Since 1999, divisional road underdogs with a road game on deck are 106-70-8 ATS (60.2%), including 28-11 ATS (71.8%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average margin of +4.2 points per game. Since 1989, NFL road underdogs of five points or less coming off a game in which they averaged fewer than 5.5 yards per rush attempt are 67-15-3 ATS (81.7%) in Weeks 1-5 versus opponents averaging greater than 3.3 yards per rush attempt and less than 27:50 of possession time if they averaged less than 31:30 of possession time the previous season, including 22-3 ATS (88%) since 2015, covering the spread by an average of +6.5 points per game. Since 2009, NFL road underdogs of four points or less coming off a home game that went under the total are 192-144-9 ATS (57.1%), including 65-47-1 ATS (58%) since 2020. Since 1989, NFL road underdogs of less than six points are 197-139-13 ATS (58.6%) in Weeks 1-4 versus opponents with revenge, including 71-32-2 ATS (68.9%) since 2016, exceeding market expectations by an average of +3.5 points per game.
Since 2006, NFL favorites of five or more points averaging fewer than seventeen points per game are 85-130-10 ATS (39.5%), including 31-55-7 ATS (36%) since 2016. Since 1989, Week 4 NFL home favorites with one win are 38-63-2 ATS (37.6%), including 12-25-1 ATS (32.4% ATS since 2012. Since 1989, NFL favorites with revenge coming off an underdog loss are 158-211-11 ATS (42.8%) in Weeks 1-9, including 28-50-3 ATS (35.9%) since 2017. Finally, since 2007, NFL home favorites of less than -4 averaging fewer than 28:00 minutes of possession time are 4-41-5 ATS (8.9%) in Weeks 1-5 versus opponents with four or more days of rest, failing to cover the spread by an average of -8.4 points per game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans UNDER 45 points (-110)
Report: Since 2011, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 343-263-13 to the Under (56.6%). Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 383-300-17 to the Under (56.1%). Since 2004, NFL home teams coming off a double-digit loss as favorites are 138-91-4 to the Under (60.3%), including 49-26 UNDER (65.3%) since 2017, covering the total by an average margin of -3.1 points per game. Since 2017, NFL teams coming off a game allowing 40 or more points are 111-82-4 to the Under (57.5%). Since 2012, .501 or greater teams coming off a loss in which they scored fewer than fourteen points are 119-91-6 to the Under (56.7%), including 70-46-4 UNDER (60.3%) since 2018.
The Jaguars are 37-9 to the Under (80.4%) since November 5, 2017, coming off a game in which they committed two or more turnovers and fewer than 400 passing yards, going under by an average of -7.1 points per game. Finally, since 2005, NFL favorites coming off three consecutive ATS losses as favorites are 54-37-3 to the Under (59.3%), including 18-10-2 UNDER (64.3%) since 2019.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 42.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2004, NFL home teams coming off a double-digit loss as favorites are 138-91-4 to the Under (60.3%), including 49-26 UNDER (65.3%) since 2017, covering the total by an average margin of -3.1 points per game. Since 2014, NFL home underdogs of less than four points in games with totals of 45 points or less are 155-107-8 to the Under (59.2%), including 82-32-3 UNDER (71.9%) since 2020, going under by an average of -3.1 points per game. Since 1991, NFL teams coming off a game in which they allowed seven or more sacks are 205-152-3 to the Under (57.4%), including 62.5% UNDER since the beginning of the 2023-24 season. Since 1989, NFL road favorites coming off an upset win as road underdogs are 92-61-4 to the Under (60.1%), including 27-11-1 UNDER (71.1%) since 2017, covering the total by an average of -4.8 points per game. Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 383-300-17 to the Under (56.1%). Since 2015, non-divisional road favorites coming off a SU and ATS win in games with totals of greater than 40 points are 121-95-3 to the Under (56%), including 31-16 UNDER (66%) since 2022.
Since 2012, .501 or greater teams coming off a loss in which they scored fewer than fourteen points are 119-91-6 to the Under (56.7%), including 70-46-4 UNDER (60.3%) since 2018. Since 2021, NFL road favorites of less than a touchdown coming off a win are 81-51-2 to the Under (61.4%), including 62-31-2 UNDER (66.7%) since 2022. Finally, since 2021, NFL road favorites are 194-127-6 to the Under (60.4%), including 134-79-5 UNDER (62.9%) since 2022.
Bonus NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, September 29
- Since 1989, teams priced between -4 to +1 coming off a road loss are 60-121-7 ATS (33.1%) in September affairs, including 33-70-5 ATS (32%) since 2004
- Since 1991, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points that won fewer than five games the previous season are 295-192-12 ATS (60.6%), including 83-43-5 ATS (65.9%) since 2017
- The Rams are 104-81-4 to the Under (56.2%) since 2007 in games with totals of less than 46 points, including 24-17-1 UNDER (58.5%) since 2018.
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