Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, September 22! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams UNDER 44.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL road teams averaging more than 0.5 turnovers per game and coming off a road affair are 79-34-1 to the Under (69.9%) versus opponents averaging 37-plus points per game, provided they won 11 or more games the previous season, including 44-9 UNDER (83%) since 2015, covering the total by an average margin of -4.8 points per game. Since 2010, NFL road favorites of seven or more points with a better yards per play average and a better third-down percentage than their opponents are 102-73-4 to the Under (58.3%). Since 1999, NFL home underdogs of seven or more points coming off a road game in which they (a) scored fewer than 23 points and (b) had a time of possession of at least 21:20 are 88-66-5 to the Under (57.1%) versus opponents averaging less than 480 total yards per game, including 47-21-2 UNDER (69.1%) since 2014, going under by an average of -4.1 points per game. Since 2011, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 342-260-13 to the Under (56.8%).
Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 380-299-17 to the Under (56%), including 304-227-12 UNDER (57.3%) since 2017. Since 2017, NFL teams coming off a game in which they allowed 40 or more points are 111-80-4 to the Under (58.1%) in their next game. Since 2012, NFL home underdogs with totals of 45 points or less are 66-42-3 to the Under (61.1%), including 36-14-1 ATS (72%) since 2019, covering the total by an average of -4.2 points per game. Since 2010, NFL home underdogs of seven or more points are 139-101-5 to the Under (57%). Finally, since 2014, NFL road favorites of more than -3 are 118-86-8 to the Under (57.8%) before Week 9 of the regular season, including 95-62-8 UNDER (60.5%) since 2017.
New York Giants (+6.5) (-110) at Cleveland Browns
Report: Since 1992, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points that won fewer than seven games the previous season are 600-472-36 ATS (56%), including 107-71-7 ATS (60.1%) since 2019. The foregoing situation improves to 393-293-20 ATS (57.3%) in games with totals of 50 points or less and 159-88-11 ATS (64.4%) in Weeks 1-4 of the regular season. Since 1999, NFL underdogs that have not covered the spread are 274-203-13 ATS (57.4%) in Weeks 1-11, including 103-68-5 ATS (60.2%) since 2015. Since 1989, Week 3 NFL teams coming off back-to-back ATS losses are 104-68-2 ATS (60.5%) versus opponents coming off one or fewer ATS losses, including 31-17-1 ATS (64.6%) since 2016. Since 1989, Week 3 NFL underdogs of +20 or less coming off consecutive ATS losses are 87-52-1 ATS (62.6%), including 24-13 ATS (64.9%) since 2016, exceeding market expectations by an average of +2.8 points per game. Since 2000, NFL road underdogs of less than +13 coming off a road loss of 24 or more points as underdogs are 129-69-6 ATS (65.2%).
Since 1989, NFL teams are 182-135-9 ATS (57.4%) versus opponents averaging fewer than 60 rushing yards per game, including 48-28-2 ATS (63.2%) since 2015, covering the spread by an average of +4.4 points per game. Since 2018, NFL underdogs in games with totals of fewer than 42 points are 182-148-15 ATS (55.2%). Finally, since 2010, winless underdogs of more than three points are 36-21 ATS (63.2%) in Week 3 of the regular season.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns UNDER 38.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 380-299-17 (56%), including 304-227-12 UNDER (57.3%) since 2017. Since 2014, NFL underdogs in games with totals of less than 42 points are 105-75-4 to the Under (58.3%) in Weeks 1-8 of the regular season, including 43-28-2 UNDER (60.6%) since 2022. Since 2011, NFL teams coming off a loss in which they averaged more than 4.0 yards per rush attempt and eclipsed their season rushing yards per game by 43 or more yards are 88-58 to the Under (60.3%) versus opponents that are not four or more games ahead of them in the win column. This situation is 58-30 UNDER (65.9%) since 2017, covering the total by an average margin of -3.2 points per game. The Giants are 26-8-1 to the Under (76.5%) since October 28, 2019, as underdogs versus opponents allowing 22.5 or more points per game on the season, going under by an average of -4.9 points per game. Finally, the Giants are 61-35-1 to the Under (63.5%) since 2011, as underdogs of less than seven points, including 29-7-1 UNDER (80.6%) since 2019, covering the total by an average of -5.2 points per game.
Bonus NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, September 22
- Since 2006, NFL favorites of five points or less that are averaging less than seventeen points per game are just 84-130-10 ATS (39.3%), including 27-51-6 ATS (34.6%) since 2017, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.4 points per game
- Since 2000, NFL teams with regular rest coming off a game in which they scored three points or less are 206-163-7 ATS (55.8%), including 61-40-2 ATS (60.4%) since 2016
- Since 1999, Week 3 NFL teams coming off back-to-back road games are 25-41-4 ATS (37.9%), including 19-35-2 ATS (35.2%) since 2005
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