Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, September 21! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
New Orleans Saints (+7.5) (-115) at Seattle Seahawks
Report: New Orleans arrives off back-to-back straight-up and against-the-spread (ATS) losses to start the 2025-26 campaign, which is significant in that Week 3 NFL teams off back-to-back ATS losses are 135-97-2 ATS (58.2%), including 39-23-1 ATS (62.9%) since 2016. Similarly, since 1991, Week 3 NFL underdogs with a spread of +20 or less are 91-53-1 ATS (63.2%) following consecutive ATS losses, including 22-11 ATS (66.7%) since 2018. Since 2009, winless NFL teams coming off an ATS loss are 51-29-1 ATS (63.7%) versus opponents with one or more wins, including 16-8-1 ATS (66.7%) since 2020 and 6-1 ATS in the last seven circumstances. Since 1999, NFL underdogs that have yet to cover the spread are 283-207-13 ATS (57.8%) in Weeks 2-11, including 101-66-5 ATS (60.5%) since 2016. Seattle is just 13-22 ATS at home since 2021, the third-worst mark in the NFL over that span.
Seattle is 0-8 ATS as home favorites of ten points or less following a double-digit ATS win versus opponents arriving off consecutive home games. Let’s also note that the Seahawks are 0-5 ATS as non-division home favorites of more than four points. Finally, single-digit home favorites in games with totals of 42 points or less are 17-31-3 ATS (35.4%) in Week 3 Sunday affairs, including 30% ATS since 2019.
Houston Texans (+1.5) (-110) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Report: The Jaguars return home off a 31-27 loss to Cincinnati, which is significant in that home teams priced between -4 to +1 coming off a road loss are 61-124-7 ATS (33%) in September affairs, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -3.8 points per game. Since 2009, NFL favorites that failed to make the playoffs the previous season are 188-268-13 ATS (41.2%) in their first four games of the regular season. Since 2005, winless NFL teams are 57-25-3 ATS (69.5%) in Weeks 2-13 versus one-win opponents coming off a loss, including 30-5-2 ATS (85.7%) since 2017, covering the spread by an average margin of +7.2 points per game. Since 1999, divisional underdogs of less than eight points are 190-146-13 ATS (56.5%) in the first three weeks of the regular season, including 56-36-1 ATS (60.9%) since 2018. Since 1999, NFL underdogs that have yet to cover the spread are 283-207-13 ATS (57.8%) in Weeks 2-11, including 101-66-5 ATS (60.5%) since 2016.
Finally, Houston falls into a very good 809-485-36 ATS (62.5%) NFL underdog system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests on certain regular-season underdogs facing opponents that are projected to be modest underdogs in their next game. The Jaguars are projected to be +3/+3.5-point underdogs in their game against San Francisco next week.
Bonus NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, September 21
- The Los Angeles Chargers don’t enjoy much of a home-field advantage, going 45-64-3 ATS (41.3%) in home affairs since 2011.
- Denver head coach Sean Payton has struggled in the first two games of the regular season in his career, posting a 12-24 ATS record.
- However, Payton is 24-9-1 ATS (72.7%) in Games 3 and 4 of the regular season, including 12-5 ATS (70.6%) in Game 3s, covering the spread by an average margin of 3.4 points per game.
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