Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, September 15! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
New York Giants at Washington Commanders UNDER 44.5 points
Report: Since 1989, NFL divisional home favorites in games with totals of 44 or more points are 221-146-4 to the Under (60.2%) versus opponents that allowed fewer than 32 points in their previous game, covering the total by an average of -2.3 points per game. Since 2011, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 340-260-13 to the Under (56.7%). Since 2005, NFL teams averaging less than 28 points per game coming off a loss are 190-144-5 to the Under (56.9%) versus divisional opponents that are (1) averaging fewer than 35 points per game (2) committed two or more turnovers in their last game, and (3) are not one game ahead of them in the win column. This situation has been 74-26 to the Under (74%) since 2017, going under by an average of -4.0 points per game. Since 1989, NFL underdogs of +3 or less are 93-63-3 to the Under (59.6%) versus opponents with double revenge in Weeks 1-4 of the regular season.
Since 1996, Week 2 NFL divisional favorites of greater than two points in games with totals of fewer than 49 points are 83-51-2 to the Under (61.9%), including 32-13 UNDER (71.1%) since 2013, covering the total by an average of -4.9 points per game. Since 1989, Week 2 NFL road underdogs of less than +7 that won fewer than seven games the previous season are 43-27-2 to the Under (61.4%). Finally, the Giants are 25-8-1 to the Under (75.8%) since October 28, 2019, as underdogs versus opponents allowing more than 22.0 points per game, going under by an average of -5.0 points per game.
Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers UNDER 41 points
Report: Since 2014, NFL home underdogs of fewer than four points in games with totals of 45 points or less are 153-106-7 to the Under (59.1%), including 80-31-2 UNDER (72.1%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -3.0 points per game. Since 2012, NFL home underdogs in games with totals of 45 points or less are 63-41-2 to the Under (60.6%) in the first three weeks of the regular season, including 33-13 UNDER (71.7%) since 2019, going under by an average of -3.8 points per game. This situation is 63-46-2 to the Under (57.8%) in games with totals of less than 42 points in Weeks 1-5 of the regular season. Since 2014, NFL road favorites of greater than three points are 115-86-7 to the Under (57.2%) in Weeks 1-8, including 92-62-7 UNDER (59.7%) since 2017. Since 1993, NFL teams allowing 24 or more points per game are 114-82-8 to the Under (58.2%) versus opponents giving up 24 or more points per game, including 46-30-6 UNDER (60.5%) since 2015, covering the total by an average of -3.1 points per game.
NFL teams coming off a neutral site game are 24-16-1 to the Under (60%) if they have ten days of rest or fewer. Since 2016, NFL non-conference games in Weeks 1-3 of the regular season are 112-90-12 to the Under (55.4%), including 50-32-2 UNDER (61%) since 2021. This situation improves to 57-33-3 to the Under (63.3%) since 2014, with non-conference road favorites in games with totals of less than 45 points. Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 186-124-5 to the Under (60%), including 126-76-4 UNDER (62.4%) since 2022. Finally, since 2012, AFC road favorites are 55-30 to the Under (64.7%) versus NFC opponents in games with totals of fewer than 48 points, including 34-13 UNDER (72.3%) since 2019, covering the total by an average of -3.7 points per game.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans UNDER 41 points
Report: Since 2014, NFL home underdogs of fewer than four points in games with totals of 45 points or less are 153-106-7 to the Under (59.1%), including 80-31-2 UNDER (72.1%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -3.0 points per game. Since 2012, NFL home underdogs in games with totals of 45 points or less are 63-41-2 to the Under (60.6%) in the first three weeks of the regular season, including 33-13 UNDER (71.7%) since 2019, going under by an average of -3.8 points per game. Since 2014, NFL road favorites of greater than three points are 115-86-7 to the Under (57.2%) in Weeks 1-8, including 92-62-7 UNDER (59.7%) since 2017. Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 379-297-16 to the Under (56.1%). Since 2016, NFL favorites coming off a Monday Night Football game are 86-69-2 to the Under (55.5%), including 40-23-1 UNDER (63.5%) since 2021. Since 2015, NFL favorites coming off a Monday Night Football appearance as underdogs are 39-25-1 to the Under (60.9%), including 25-8 UNDER (75.8%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -3.6 points per game.
Since 1993, NFL teams allowing 24 or more points per game are 114-82-8 to the Under (58.2%) versus opponents giving up 24 or more points per game, including 46-30-6 UNDER (60.5%) since 2015, covering the total by an average of -3.1 points per game. Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 186-124-5 to the Under (60%), including 126-76-4 UNDER (62.4%) since 2022. Since 2018, NFL home teams with revenge coming off a non-division loss as underdogs are 75-53-4 to the Under (58.6%), including 31-16-2 UNDER (66%) since 2022. Finally, since 1989, NFL road favorites that won fewer than eight games the previous season are 82-64 to the Under (56.2%), including 30-20 UNDER (60%) since 2015.
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