Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, August 17! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox (-1.5) (-115)
Probable Starters: Marlins: Janson Junk (6-2, 4.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 52 strikeouts); Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (13-5, 2.48 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 188 strikeouts)
Report: The fact that the Red Sox are large favorites is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2664-1012 SU (72.5%; +2.2% ROI) and 1976-1493 RL (57%; +2.8% ROI) since 2007, including 1532-538 SU (74.0%; +3.6% ROI) and 1210-861 RL (58.4%; +2.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Similarly, large MLB favorites in games with totals of greater than eight runs are 2310-911 SU (71.7%; +2.6% ROI) and 1816-1397 RL (56.5%; +2.8% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2554-1027 SU (71.3%; +1.2% ROI) and 1664-1399 RL (+1.3% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 983-367 SU (72.8%; +2.1% ROI) and 746-603 RL (55.3%; +1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. The Marlins are coming off three consecutive losses, which is notable in that .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1295-2613 SU (33.1%; -8.1% ROI) and 1728-1574 RL (-2.7% ROI), including 406-845 SU (32.5%; -7.1% ROI) and 632-619 RL (-2.7% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.5 runs per game.
Finally, Miami right-hander Janson Junk is coming off a non-quality start in which he allowed three runs over five innings of work (2/0 K/BB) which is notable in that large MLB underdogs are 357-1145 SU (23.8%; -20.5% ROI) and 562-852 RL (39.7%; -12.9% ROI) with starting pitchers coming off a non-quality start, losing by an average of -2.4 runs per game.
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) (-105) at Chicago Bears
Report: Chicago hosted the Dolphins in Week One, which is significant in that the Bears are 2-7 SU (22.2%) and 1-8 ATS (11.1%) in the second of back-to-back preseason home games, losing by an average margin of -6.0 points per game and failing to cover the spread by an average of -9.7 points per game. That angle fits nicely with the fact that NFC home teams are 108-146-2 ATS (42.5%) versus AFC opponents in preseason affairs, including 39-68 ATS (36.4%) since 2019, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -3.6 points per game. Since 2004, NFL preseason road underdogs of less than three points are 164-135-1 ATS (55%), including 24-15 ATS (61.5%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average of +2.7 points per game. Let’s also note that the Bills are 10-2 SU and ATS as preseason road underdogs since 2018, covering by an average of +6.8 points per game.
Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last ten preseason home games, while head coach Sean McDermott is a 66.7% ATS winning proposition in Game 2 of the NFL preseason. Since 2018, non-conference road teams are 138-112-5 ATS (55.2%) in preseason affairs, including 47-36 ATS (56.6%) since 2023. Take Buffalo and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports gives free College Football Picks, College Football Predictions, NFL Picks, NFL Predictions, NBA Picks, NBA Predictions, MLB Picks, MLB Predictions, NHL Picks, and NHL Predictions throughout the 2025-26 seasons. Oskeim Sports has been an industry-leading sports handicapping service since 2007. Its lead handicapper, Jeff Keim, has received 73 awards in football, basketball, baseball, and hockey, including 15 handicapping championships and 53 Top 5 finishes. Visit daily for free NBA and college basketball odds, totals, and free picks. Oskeim gives the best daily free picks in the sports handicapping industry.
Join Oskeim Sports today and save 20% on your first purchase at the online store!