Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, May 11! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Cleveland Cavaliers (-5) (-110) at Indiana Pacers
Report: After losing the series’ first two games, Cleveland secured a 126-104 win over the Pacers on Friday. That win triggers a very good 442-346-13 ATS (56.1%) NBA system of mine that invests on certain road favorites coming off a win that snapped a two-plus game losing streak. This situation contains an even better 214-160-7 ATS (57.2%) subset angle involving favorites of five or more points. These teams are 21-10-1 ATS (67.7%) in postseason play, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.8 points per game. NBA road favorites have performed well in postseason play, going 192-152-8 ATS (55.8%) since 2006, including 113-75-3 ATS (60.1%) since 2016. Since 1990, .420 or greater NBA favorites of less than ten points coming off a win by 20 or more points with two or fewer days of rest are 136-76-5 ATS (64.2%) versus .670 or worse opponents off an underdog loss by 20 or more points in games with totals of at least 181 points.
The foregoing situation is 65-31-1 ATS (67.7%) in postseason play, including 24-11 ATS (68.6%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.0 points per game. Cleveland falls into a profitable 1270-966-42 ATS (56.8%) Road Favorite System of mine that invests on certain NBA road favorites of more than three points. Finally, since 2004, NBA playoff underdogs coming off back-to-back games as underdogs are 243-336-13 ATS (42%).
Oklahoma City Thunder (-6.5) (-110) at Denver Nuggets
Report: Denver secured a 113-104 win in Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead in the series, but teams coming off an upset win as underdogs of four or more points are 117-184-2 ATS (38.9%) in Game 2 or beyond of a playoff series. In contrast, NBA playoff favorites coming off a loss are 380-298-11 ATS (56%) in Game 2 (or beyond) of a series, including 86-58-1 ATS (59.7%) since 2020, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.9 points per game. NBA road favorites have performed well in postseason play, going 192-152-8 ATS (55.8%) since 2006, including 113-75-3 ATS (60.1%) since 2016. Similarly, NBA playoff road favorites of five or more points are 87-54-4 ATS (61.9%), while conference road favorites of greater than four points with revenge are 30-12-1 ATS (71.4%) in postseason play. Oklahoma City falls into a profitable 1270-966-42 ATS (56.8%) Road Favorite System of mine that invests on certain NBA road favorites of more than three points.
The Thunder are 26-5-1 ATS (83.9%) since 2021, following a game in which they had 54 or more total rebounds, covering the spread by an average margin of +6.4 points per game. Finally, since 2004, NBA playoff underdogs coming off back-to-back games as underdogs are 243-336-13 ATS (42%).
Atlanta Braves (-220) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Report: Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -200 or greater are 747-322 SU (69.9%; +1.3% ROI) and 600-422 RL (58.7%; +1.7% ROI), including 592-275 SU (68.3%) and 452-347 RL (56.6%) versus .449 or worse opponents, winning by an average margin of +2.0 runs per game. San Diego falls into a very good 556-240 SU (69.8%; +1.3% ROI) and 452-309 RL (59.4%; +2.4% ROI) Large Road Favorite System of mine that dates to 2006 and invests on certain favorites of -200 or greater. This situation is 487-203 SU (70.6%; +2.1% ROI) and 414-276 RL (60%; +2.9% ROI) since 2012, winning by an average margin of +2.4 runs per game. Pittsburgh enters off an extra-innings affair, which is noteworthy in that MLB underdogs coming off an extra-innings game in which they used five or more pitchers are 310-563 SU (35.5%; -18.2% ROI) and 378-393 RL (-12.3% ROI). Similarly, MLB home underdogs coming off an extra-innings loss are 226-361 SU (38.5%; -14.5% ROI) and 309-278 RL (-6.8% ROI), including 70-133 SU (34.5%; -21.3% ROI) and 98-105 RL (-14.4% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.5 runs per game.
The Pirates are 9-22 (29%; -30.2% ROI) since August 1, 2020, as underdogs of +120 to +270 following an extra-innings affair. Finally, the Braves are 98-54 (64.5%) since September 24, 2019, as favorites of -140 or greater coming off a game as favorites in which they had more strikeouts than hits, winning by an average of +1.5 runs per game.
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