Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, March 3! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers (-185)
Report: Since 2011, NHL favorites of -111 to -199 are 1371-841 (62%; +4.5% ROI) versus unrested opponents, including 325-160 (67%; +13.1% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.0 goals per game. This situation contains a very good 546-276 (66.4%; +12% ROI) subset angle involving games with totals of six or more goals. Since 2004, .499 or worse underdogs with no rest coming off a road game are 577-1072 (35%; -10.8% ROI), including 80-228 (26%; -28% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average margin of -1.3 goals per game. Since 2007, .499 or worse underdogs coming off back-to-back road games are 1238-2019 (38%; -6.1% ROI), including 249-539 (31.6%; -16.0% ROI) since 2020.
Since 2009, NHL home favorites of -200 or less coming off three or more consecutive wins are 279-159 (63.7%; +7% ROI) versus opponents entering off back-to-back road games, including 100-48 (67.6%; +14.2% ROI) since 2018. Finally, since 2003, NHL road teams playing their third game in four days are 1321-1729 (43.3%; -3.5% ROI).
Winnipeg Jets (-115) at Buffalo Sabres
Report: Since 2011, NHL favorites of -111 to -199 are 1371-841 (62%; +4.5% ROI) versus unrested opponents, including 325-160 (67%; +13.1% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.0 goals per game. This situation contains a very good 546-276 (66.4%; +12% ROI) subset angle involving games with totals of six or more goals. Since 2004, unrested road favorites are 693-459 (60.2%; +2% ROI), including 201-124 (61.8%) since 2020, winning by an average of +0.7 goals per game.
Since 2005, NHL road favorites of -140 or greater are 677-342 (66.4%; +4.5% ROI) versus opponents coming off a win, including 374-179 (67.6%; +4.5% ROI) since 2017. Since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2253-1493 (60.1%; +4.9% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents. Since 2003, NHL home underdogs coming off a game in which they had 30 or more shots on goal are 1058-1501 (41.3%; -6.1% ROI), including 268-461 (36.8%; -13% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average of -0.8 goals per game.
Since 2003, unrested home underdogs are 288-505 (36.3%; -15.6% ROI), including 86-215 (28.6%; -28.7% ROI) since 2018, losing by an average of -1.03 goals per game. Since 2013, NHL home underdogs coming off a home win are 100-141 (41.5%; -5.8% ROI) versus opponents entering off a road win, including 52-85 (38%; -12.9% ROI) since 2018. Since 2003, NHL road favorites are 108-60 (64.3%; +13.5% ROI) versus .401 to .489 opponents that have won four or more of their last five games, including 96-51 (65.3%; +15.4% ROI) if both teams have fewer than three days of rest.
Finally, the Jets are 52-23 (69.4%; +17.4% ROI) as favorites of less than -200 versus unrested opponents since 2005, winning by an average of +0.91 goals per game.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) (-110) at Phoenix Suns
Report: Since 2012, rested NBA road favorites of -10 or less coming off a loss are 112-86-3 ATS (56.6%) versus unrested opponents, including 53-32-1 ATS (62.4%) since 2020. Since 1989, rested NBA road teams are 99-58-3 ATS (63.1%) versus .550 or greater opponents coming off an ATS loss in which they scored more than 102 points, including 56-30-1 ATS (65.1%) since 2018. Since 1999, NBA road teams with two or more days of rest coming off a road game are 48-19-1 ATS (71.6%) versus unrested opponents entering off a home game, including a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six circumstances.
Since 2003, single-digit road favorites coming off a loss as favorites on no more than a two-game ATS losing streak are 632-474-27 ATS (57.1%), including 169-122-12 ATS (58.1%) since 2019. Finally, since 2006, NBA home underdogs of greater than four points coming off a game in which 200 or more points were scored are 774-1013-37 ATS (43.3%) versus .749 or worse opponents.
San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild (-1.5)
Report:: Since 2004, .499 or worse underdogs with no rest coming off a road game are 577-1072 (35%; -10.8% ROI), including 80-228 (26%; -28% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average margin of -1.3 goals per game. Since 2004, NHL road underdogs of +200 or greater coming off a loss are 290-854 (25.3%; -11.6% ROI), including 95-311 (23.4%; -15.8% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.61 goals per game. Since 2007, unrested teams coming off an overtime loss are 427-585 (42.2%; -9.7% ROI) provided they are not priced between -120 and -140, including 70-112 (38.5%; -18.7% ROI) since 2019.
Since 2005, NHL home favorites coming off an upset road loss where they scored fewer than three goals are 33-6 (84.6%; +23.8% ROI) versus unrested opponents entering off a loss as road underdogs, winning by an average of +2.2 goals per game. Finally, since 2003, NHL road teams playing their third game in four days are 1321-1729 (43.3%; -3.5% ROI).
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