Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, December 8! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants UNDER 41 points (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph and temperatures of at least 30 degrees are 918-715-36 to the Under (56.2%), including 426-284-14 UNDER (60%) since 2018, covering the total by an average margin of -2.0 points per game. Since 1990, NFL road teams coming off three consecutive home games with totals of less than 47 points are 132-89-1 to the Under (59.7%), including 37-17-1 UNDER (68.5%) since 2016. Since 2008, NFL teams coming off five consecutive against-the-spread (ATS) losses are 82-57-1 to the Under (59%), including 15-9 UNDER (62.5%) since 2022. Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 219-162-7 to the Under (57.5%), including 159-114-6 UNDER (58.2%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season. Since 2009, NFL teams coming off five or more consecutive straight-up losses are 96-78-2 to the Under (55.2%) if they won six or fewer games the previous season, including 40-27-2 UNDER (59.7%) since 2019.
The Giants are 52-26 to the Under (66.7%) since 2020, including 23-4 UNDER (85.2%) as home underdogs. The Giants are 19-1-1 to the Under (95%) since 2020, as home underdogs of less than six points, going under by an average of -9.4 points per game. The Giants are 30-9-1 to the Under (76.9%) since October 28, 2019, as underdogs versus opponents averaging more than 22.5 points per game, covering the total by an average of -5.1 points per game. New York head coach Brian Daboll is 16-7 to the Under (69.6%) as a single-digit underdog. Finally, the Under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings in New York in this series.
New York Jets (+6) (-110) at Miami Dolphins
Report: Since 2016, conference underdogs of six points or less coming off a loss are 297-238-18 ATS (55.5%), including 162-126-7 ATS (56.2%) since 2020. Since 2006, divisional road underdogs of less than a touchdown are 384-302-10 ATS (56%), including 106-77 ATS (57.9%) since 2020. Since 1989, .549 or worse underdogs of +2.5 to +7 coming off a loss in which they scored 33 or fewer points in games with totals of 36.5 to 54 points are 214-122-7 ATS (63.7%) versus .599 or worse opponents entering off a loss as underdogs, provided they won at least one game the previous season, including 56-28-3 ATS (66.7%) since 2017, covering the total by an average margin of +3.3 points per game. Since 2004, NFL teams coming off a bye week are 81-66-4 ATS (55.1%) if they lost back-to-back games before their bye. New York applies to a very good 110-58-3 ATS (65.5%) system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests on certain divisional road underdogs with two or fewer wins from Week 7 forward. If these road underdogs get fewer than seven points, they improve to 55-22-1 ATS (71.4%) since 1989, winning by an average of 1.0 points per game and covering the spread by an average of +4.9 points per game. Veteran NFL quarterbacks are 51-39-3 ATS (56.7%) in December affairs since 2004. Since 2006, veteran NFL quarterbacks in their first season with new teams are 65-44-5 ATS (59.6%) as underdogs of three points or more.
Since 2012, NFL underdogs that have covered the spread in less than 50% of their games are 355-276-16 ATS (56.3%) if they have a negative ATS margin, including 208-151-15 ATS (57.9%) since 2017. Finally, since 2006, NFL home favorites coming off one loss exact are 281-368-14 ATS (43.3%) versus opponents that are not on extended losing streaks (i.e. 6+ consecutive losses) in non-Monday affairs, including 71-123-3 ATS (36.6%) since 2019, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.7 points per game. Take New York and invest with confidence.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins UNDER 45 points (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph and temperatures of at least 30 degrees are 918-715-36 to the Under (56.2%), including 426-284-14 UNDER (60%) since 2018, covering the total by an average margin of -2.0 points per game. Since 2005, NFL teams averaging less than 28.0 points per game coming off a loss are 192-146-5 to the Under (56.8%) versus divisional opponents averaging fewer than 35.0 points per game, committed two or more turnovers in their last game and are not one game ahead of them in the win column, including 76-28 UNDER (73.1%) since 2017, covering the total by an average margin of -3.8 points per game. Since 2007, early afternoon NFL divisional games are 171-131-7 to the Under (56.6%) from Week 13 forward. New York quarterback Aaron Rodgers is ranked 31st in the NFL this season in success rate, 31st in CPOE and 26th in aDOT. Rodgers is 30th in QBR since 2022, just ahead of Mac Jones.
Finally, since 1999, NFL teams coming off a road game at Lambeau Field are 124-77-5 to the Under (61.7%), including 41-17-3 ATS UNDER (70.7%) since 2017, going under by an average of -2.7 points per game.
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