Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, December 7! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
New Orleans Saints (+8.5) (-110) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Report: New Orleans arrives off a 21-17 loss to the Dolphins, which is significant because the Saints fall into a 133-76-6 ATS (63.6%) NFL system of mine that invests on certain road underdogs coming off a road loss of fewer than 24 points. Since 1989, .624 or worse favorites of greater than a touchdown are 355-447-17 ATS (44.3%). New Orleans is 39-26 ATS (60%) in road/neutral games, whereas the Buccaneers are 39-55 ATS (41.5%) at home since 2014. The Saints are 15-6-1 ATS on the road versus NFC South opponents, including 8-0 ATS as an underdog. Tampa Bay starting quarterback Baker Mayfield is 22-34-1 ATS in home affairs, including 7-19 ATS as a home favorite since 2020.
Mayfield’s 22-34-1 ATS home record is the worst out of 134 qualifying quarterbacks since he was drafted in 2018. Finally, Tampa Bay is 0-7 SU and ATS in its last seven home games against the Saints.
Tennessee Titans (+4) (-110) at Cleveland Browns
Report: Since 1991, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points are 307-203-12 ATS (60.2%) if they won five or fewer games the previous season, including 105-62-5 ATS (62.9%) since 2016. Tennessee arrives off a 25-3 loss to the Jaguars, which is significant because NFL underdogs coming off a game in which they scored three points or less are 142-105-4 ATS (57.5%) since 2002, including 56-36-2 ATS (60.9%) since 2015. Moreover, NFL underdogs of three points or greater coming off a loss by 20 or more points in which they scored fewer than seventeen points are 308-231-12 ATS (57.1%).
Finally, Cleveland’s offense is averaging just 16.2 points per game, and NFL favorites of five points or less that are averaging fewer than 17 points per game are 94-141-10 ATS (40%), including 37-62-6 ATS (37.4%) since 2016.
Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) (-110)
Report: Washington arrives off an emotional 27-26 loss to the Broncos, which is significant because the Commanders are 22-39 ATS following a straight-up loss, while head coach Dan Quinn is 1-11 SU and ATS entering off a non-conference loss. In contrast, the Vikings are 83-62 SU and 89-55-1 ATS when playing with regular rest (e.g., 7 days). Minnesota returns home from a 26-0 loss to the Seahawks, but NFL teams coming off a game in which they scored less than six points are 37-18 ATS (67.3%) in late-season affairs since 2015. Finally, NFL teams coming off a shutout are 40-24-2 ATS (62.5%) since 2012.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 41.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2017, Sunday Night Football games during the regular season are 90-56-5 to the Under (61.6%). Houston arrives off consecutive upset wins over Buffalo (23-19) and Indianapolis (20-16), which is significant because NFL teams coming off back-to-back upset wins as underdogs are 249-199-9 ATS (55.6%). The Texans are also traveling for the second straight week, and NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road affairs are 440-365 to the Under (55%) since 2015. Kansas City returns home off a 31-28 loss to the Cowboys, and NFL teams coming off a road loss in which they allowed 30 or more points are 131-91 to the Under (59%) in post-Thanksgiving games.
Finally, Kansas City is 78-40 to the Under (66.1%) as a home favorite and 38-16 UNDER (70.4%) as a home favorite of -3.5 to -8.5 points, while Houston quarterback CJ Stroud is 16-9 to the Under (64%) in the last 25 games following a win.
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