Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, December 29! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 39.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph and temperatures of at least 30 degrees are 930-729-38 to the Under (56.1%), including 438-298-16 UNDER (59.5%) since 2018, covering the total by an average margin of -1.6 points per game. Since 1989, NFL road underdogs from October forward whose over/under margin has gone over by fourteen or more points in each of their previous two games are 102-78-4 to the Under (56.7%), including 28-14 UNDER (66.7%) since 2015, going under by an average of -2.7 points per game. Since 2005, NFL teams averaging less than 28 points per game coming off a loss are 192-147-5 to the Under (56.6%) versus divisional opponents averaging fewer than 35 points per game and committed two or more turnovers in their last game, including 76-29 UNDER (72.4%) since 2017, going under by an average of -3.6 points per game. Since 2008, NFL teams coming off a divisional road loss in which they allowed 35 or more points are 77-55-4 to the Under (58.3%) in games with totals of less than 54 points, including 35-20-2 UNDER (63.6%) since 2017.
Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 414-328-19 to the Under (55.8%), including 338-256-15 UNDER (56.9%) since 2017. Finally, since 2007, early afternoon divisional games are 174-135-7 to the Under (56.3%) from Week 13 forward.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants UNDER 40.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2010, NFL home underdogs of at least seven points are 144-113-5 to the Under (56%), including 91-68-5 to the Under (57.2%) following a road game in which they scored fewer than 23 points versus opponents averaging less than 480 total yards of offense per game. The subset angle is 45-23-2 to the Under (66.2%) since 2015, covering the total by an average margin of -3.8 points per game. Since 2010, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 370-287-14 to the Under (56.3%). Since 2015, non-divisional road favorites coming off a SU and ATS win are 130-104-4 to the Under (55.6%) in games with totals of more than 40 points, including 40-25-1 UNDER (61.5%) since 2022. Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 226-172-7 to the Under (56.8%). Since 2014, NFL teams coming off a game in which they had 47 or more rushing attempts are 23-10-1 to the Under (69.7%), going under by an average of -5.7 points per game. Since 2012, AFC road favorites are 63-37 to the Under (63%) versus NFC opponents in games with totals of fewer than 48 points, including 42-20 UNDER (67.7%) since 2019, covering the total by an average of -3.4 points per game.
The Giants are 49-24-2 to the Under (67.1%) since 2002 as home underdogs, including 28-9-2 UNDER (75.7%) since 2019, going under by an average of -5.3 points per game. The Giants are 32-10-1 to the Under (76.2%) since October 28, 2019, as underdogs versus opponents allowing 22.5 or more points per game, covering the total by an average of -5.0 points per game. Finally, since 2009, NFL teams coming off five or more consecutive losses that won six or fewer games the previous season are 98-79-2 to the Under (55.4%), including 42-28-2 UNDER (60%) since 2019, going under by an average of -2.0 points per game.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills UNDER 46 points (-110)
Report: Since 2008, NFL teams that have allowed 100 or more combined points in their last three games are 194-128-7 to the Under (60.2%), including 62-37 UNDER (62.6%) since 2020, going under by an average margin of -3.0 points per game. Since 1989, divisional home favorites with six days of rest are 225-152-4 to the Under (59.7%) versus opponents that allowed fewer than 32 points in their last game, going under by an average of -2.2 points per game. Since 2012, NFL underdogs of greater than nine points in games with totals of more than 43 points are 177-126-5 to the Under (58.4%). Since 1989, divisional favorites of seven or more points coming off a game as home favorites are 33-15 to the Under (68.8%) versus opponents averaging (1) fewer than 5 ½ rushing first downs per game, (2) more than 26:00 minutes of possession time per game and (3) fewer than 2 ½ takeaways per game, including 29-9 UNDER (86.3%) since 2009, covering the total by an average of -4.4 points per game. Since 2013, NFL teams averaging six or more yards per play are 457-356-23 to the Under (56.2%) from Week 5 forward. Since 1995, divisional NFL games with totals of greater than 45 points are 512-404 to the Under (55.9%) from Week 11 forward.
Since 2007, early afternoon divisional games are 174-135-7 to the Under (56.3%) from Week 13 forward. Since 2013, NFL teams coming off a win in which they trailed by fourteen or more points are 96-77-1 to the Under (55.5%), including 42-21-1 UNDER (66.7%) since 2020, going under by an average of -2.5 points per game. Since 1989, NFL home favorites of greater than a touchdown for the second consecutive game are 103-83-5 to the Under (55.4%). Finally, the Jets are 16-4-2 to the Under (80%) since November 17, 2011, on the road following a home game in which they failed to cover the spread by seven or more points, going under by an average of -3.5 points per game.
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