Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, December 15! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) (-110) at Carolina Panthers
Report: Since 1989, .549 or worse underdogs of +2.5 to +7 points coming off a loss in which they scored 33 or fewer points are 216-122-7 ATS (63.9%) if they won 3-11 games the previous season vs. .599 or worse opponents entering off a loss as underdogs in games with totals of 36.5 to 54 points. This situation is 43-19-2 ATS (69.4%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.2 points per game. Since 2016, conference underdogs of six points or less coming off a loss are 299-241-18 ATS (55.4%). Since 2009, NFL road underdogs of four points or less coming off a home game that went under the total are 198-149-9 ATS (57.1%). Dallas applies to a very good 87-57-8 ATS (60.4%) system of mine that invests on certain teams coming off a loss that had a preseason win total of at least ten versus opponents that had a lower preseason win projection. Since 2014, the Cowboys are 68-29 SU and 62-33-2 ATS (65.3%) versus .500 or worse opponents, winning by an average of +7.4 points per game and covering by an average of +4.3 points per game.
Since 1994, NFL teams coming off three consecutive against-the-spread (ATS) wins with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch ae 72-119-7 ATS (37.7%). Since 2015, NFL favorites with revenge coming off a loss as underdogs are 89-125-3 ATS (41.6%), including 47-74-1 ATS (38.8%) since 2019, failing to cover by an average of -2.2 points per game. The Panthers are 4-18 SU and 0-22 ATS since 2001 as favorites following a loss by fewer than seven points, failing to cover by an average of -10.5 points per game. Finally, the Panthers are 0-14 SU and ATS since November 5, 2018, as favorites versus .399 or worse opponents, failing to cover by an average of -13.1 points per game.
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals UNDER 46 points (-110)
Report: Since 2004, NFL home teams coming off a double-digit loss as favorites are 143-96-4 to the Under (59.8%), including 54-31 UNDER (63.5%) since 2017, covering the total by an average of -2.4 points per game. Since 2010, NFL road teams coming off a bye week are 124-90-4 to the Under (57.9%), including 50-24-1 UNDER (67.6%) since 2019, going under by an average of -2.9 points per game. Since 2019, NFL road underdogs arriving off a bye week are 23-7-1 to the Under (76.7%), going under by an average of -5.9 points per game. Since 1999, NFL teams coming off two or more consecutive losses with a positive against-the-spread (ATS) margin are 51-38-5 to the Under (57.3%), provided they won four or fewer games the previous season, including 15-8-1 UNDER (65.2%) since 2018, covering the total by an average of -2.5 points per game. New England falls into a very good 27-9 (75%) NFL totals system of mine that dates to 2017 and invests on certain teams off a one-possession loss in which they missed two or more field goals.
Finally, since 2011, NFL teams coming off a loss in which they averaged more than 4.0 yards per rush attempt and finished with 43+ yards more than their season average are 92-60 to the Under (60.5%) versus opponents that are not four or more games ahead of them in the win column. This situation is 62-32 to the Under (66%) since 2017, covering the total by an average of -2.9 points per game.
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks UNDER 46.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2013, NFL teams averaging six or more yards per play are 454-350-23 to the Under (56.5%) from Week 5 forward. Since 2017, Sunday Night Football games are 80-49-5 to the Under (62%) during the regular season, including 35-14-1 UNDER (71.4%) since 2022, going under by an average margin of -3.9 points per game. Since 2010, NFL teams coming off a Thursday road game in which they scored 31 or more points are 30-13-3 to the Under (69.8%), covering the total by an average of -3.2 points per game. Since 2015, NFL road teams coming off a road affair in which their opponent ran 70 or more offensive plays are 96-74-5 to the Under (56.5%), including 34-25-1 UNDER (57.6%) since 2021. Since 2017, NFL teams coming off back-to-back upset wins as underdogs are 63-49-3 to the Under (56.2%), including 47-27-1 UNDER (63.5%) since 2020. Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 409-323-19 to the Under (55.9%), including 333-251-14 UNDER (57%) since 2017.
The Packers are 32-18-4 to the Under (64%) since 2011, following a game in which they threw for less than 200 yards, including 18-4-4 UNDER (81.8%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season, going under by an average of -6.1 points per game. Finally, since 2021, NFL road favorites are 221-163-7 to the Under (57.6%), including 161-115-6 UNDER (58.3%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season.
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