Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, November 3! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Miami Dolphins (+6) (-110) at Buffalo Bills
Report: Since 1989, NFL teams with an against-the-spread (ATS) win percentage of less than 15% are 241-159-12 ATS (60.2%) versus opponents with a better record from Week 6 forward. This situation improves to 56-16-1 ATS (77.8%) from Week 9 forward, covering the spread by an average margin of +6.4 points per game. Since 2016, conference underdogs of six points or less coming off a loss are 287-229-17 ATS (55.6%), including 152-117-6 ATS (56.5%) since 2020. Since 2006, divisional road underdogs of less than a touchdown are 380-300-10 ATS (55.9%), including 79-57 ATS (58.1%) since 2021. Since 1989, NFL divisional road teams coming off an upset loss as favorites in games with totals of 35.5 and 52 points are 218-148-13 ATS (59.6%) versus opponents with the same or better win percentage, covering the spread by an average of +2.2 points per game. Since 1999, divisional road underdogs with a road game on deck are 108-71-8 ATS (60.3%), including 30-12 ATS (71.4%) since 2019, covering by an average of +3.9 points per game.
Since 1989, divisional road underdogs of less than a touchdown are 98-70-4 ATS (58.3%) in Weeks 7-16 if they have lost four or more of their last five games, including 25-11-1 ATS (69.4%) since 2016, covering by an average of +2.9 points per game. Finally, since 2002, NFL teams covering the spread an average of 5 or more points per game are 358-449-20 ATS (44.4%) versus .600 or worse opponents from Week 5 out.
Dallas Cowboys (+3) (-110) at Atlanta Falcons
Report: Since 2000, NFL road underdogs of less than +13 coming off a road loss of 24 or more points as underdogs are 130-70-6 ATS (65%). Since 1989, NFL teams priced between -6 and +4 with subpar turnover defenses on the road are 95-54-5 ATS (63.8%) following two or more consecutive games with a turnover margin of plus-1 or worse, including 24-13-2 ATS (64.9%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.7 points per game. Since 2012, NFL underdogs of +10 or less coming off an ATS loss are 270-212-16 ATS (56%) versus opponents entering off an ATS win, including 73-51-4 ATS (58.9%) since 2021. Since 2005, NFL underdogs of four points or less that had eleven or more regular season wins the previous season are 117-89-5 ATS (56.8%) in Weeks 1-9, including 45-26-1 ATS (63.4%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average of +4.4 points per game. The Cowboys are 12-1 ATS (92.3%) since September 18, 2000, in road affairs off a game as road underdogs in which they allowed 30 or more points, covering the spread by an average of +11.0 points per game.
Since 2008, non-divisional home favorites of -4 or less are 180-235-13 ATS (43.4%), including 61-89-4 ATS (40.7%) since 2019, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.9 points per game. Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins is 15-28 ATS playing indoor games over the last five seasons, including 2-11 ATS in his last thirteen games indoors. Cousins is also 12-23 ATS at home since 2020, the least profitable mark of 104 quarterbacks in that span. Finally, the Falcons are 19-35-2 ATS (35.2%) since 1999 at home following a game in which they allowed more than 290 passing yards, including 2-12-1 ATS (14.3%) since 2018, failing to cover the spread by an average of -4.8 points per game.
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans UNDER 38.5 points (-110)
Analysis: Since 1989, NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph and temperatures of at least 30 degrees are 896-699-38 to the Under (56.2%), including 404-268-14 UNDER (60.1%) since 2018, covering the total by an average margin of -2.0 points per game. Since 2008, NFL teams that have allowed 100 or more points combined in their last three games are 189-124-7 to the Under (60.4%), including 57-33 UNDER (63.7%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -3.1 points per game. Since 2017, NFL teams coming off a game in which they allowed 40 or more points are 114-88-4 to the Under (56.4%). Since 2011, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 350-274-13 to the Under (56.1%). Since 2010, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 326-263-15 to the Under (55.3%) versus opponents not entering off a loss by 20 or more points, including 181-143-6 (55.9%) since 2016. Since 2018, NFL home teams with revenge coming off a non-division loss as underdogs are 78-57-5 to the Under (57.8%) versus specific opponents that satisfy one parameter.
The foregoing situation is 34-20-3 to the Under (63%) since 2022 and 21-10-2 UNDER (67.7%) since the beginning of the 2023-24 season, covering the total by an average of -4.0 points per game. Finally, since 1989, NFL home favorites coming off a game in which they failed to cover the spread by more than three touchdowns and have a lower win percentage than their opponent are 43-18-2 to the Under (70.5%), going under by an average of -4.9 points per game.
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