Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, November 24! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts UNDER 50.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2010, NFL home underdogs of seven or more points are 142-110-5 to the Under (56.3%). Since 2009, NFL road favorites of seven or more points with better yards per play and third down percentage averages are 104-78-4 to the Under (57.1%), including 95-66-3 UNDER (59%) since 2012. NFL games with totals of 50 or more points are 34-17-1 to the Under (66.7%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, covering the total by an average margin of -2.7 points per game. Since 2015, non-divisional road favorites coming off a SU and ATS win are 127-98-4 to the Under (56.4%) in games with totals of more than 40 points, including 37-19-1 UNDER (66.1%) since 2022. Since 2004, NFL road favorites of -7.5 to -13.5 points averaging four or more red zone attempts per game are 38-26-1 to the Under (59.4%) with totals of greater than 44 points, including 22-13-1 UNDER (62.9%) since 2015, going under by an average of -2.2 points per game.
Since 1992, NFL teams coming off a win by greater than seventeen points in which they had more than 350 passing yards are 18-9-1 to the Under (66.7%) if they averaged greater than 15.0 yards per catch, going under by an average of -2.8 points per game. Finally, since 2013, NFL teams averaging 6 or more yards per play are 448-344-20 to the Under (56.6%) from Week 5 out. Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 214-154-7 to the Under (58.2%).
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3.5) (-110)
Report: Since 1990, NFL underdogs of seven points or less that have scored fewer than four combined touchdowns in their last three games are 141-98-13 ATS (59%) with totals of less than 45 points, including 41-19-2 ATS (68.3%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +5.1 points per game. Since 2016, conference underdogs of six points or less coming off a loss are 292-236-17 ATS (55.3%). Since 1989, NFL teams coming off three consecutive games in which they did not commit a turnover are 115-74-5 ATS (60.8%), covering the spread by an average of +2.5 points per game. Since 1989, NFL teams coming off three consecutive games without committing a turnover are 97-52-4 ATS (65.1%) versus opponents that have committed three or more turnovers in their previous three games, covering by an average of +3.2 points per game.
Since 2002, NFL teams covering the spread by an average of 5.0 or more points per game are 365-452-20 ATS (44.7%) versus .600 or worse opponents from Week 5. Finally, since 1993, NFL teams that have allowed no more than 60 rushing yards per game on average in their last three games are 181-231-17 ATS (43.9%).
Tennessee Titans (+8) (-110) at Houston Texans
Report: Since 1989, NFL teams with an against-the-spread (ATS) win percentage of less than 15% are 243-162-12 ATS (60%) versus opponents with a better record from Week 6 forward. This situation improves to 58-19-1 ATS (75.3%) from Week 9 forward, covering the spread by an average margin of +6.0 points per game. Since 1989, NFL teams covering the spread in fewer than 14% of their games are 50-19-3 ATS (72.5%) from Week 9 out, including 10-2 ATS (83.3%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +7.8 points per game. Since 1999, divisional road underdogs with a road game on deck are 109-71-8 ATS (60.6%), including 31-12 ATS (72.1%) since 2019, covering by an average of +3.8 points per game. Since 2012, NFL underdogs of +10 or less coming off an ATS loss are 273-223-16 ATS (55%) versus opponents entering off an ATS win, including 146-107-9 ATS (57.7%) since 2018.
Since 2006, NFL road underdogs of less than nine points in games with totals of 40 to 42.5 points are 289-217-11 ATS (57.1%), including 80-48-3 ATS (62.5%) since 2019. Finally, since 1989, NFL underdogs from Week 10 forward with one or fewer ATS wins are 29-5-1 ATS (85.3%) versus opponents with a better winning percentage, covering the spread by an average of +9.0 points per game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants UNDER 41.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph and temperatures of at least 30 degrees are 914-703-36 to the Under (56.5%), including 422-272-14 UNDER (60.8%) since 2018, covering the total by an average margin of -2.0 points per game. Since 1994, NFL games between teams that are both on extended rest (10+ days) are 144-94-2 to the Under (60.5%), including 42-20-2 UNDER (67.7%) UNDER since 2016, covering the total by an average of -4.1 points per game. Since 2008, NFL teams coming off five or more consecutive against-the-spread (ATS) losses are 80-54-1 to the Under (59.7%), including 17-10 UNDER (63%) since 2021. Since 2010, NFL road teams coming off a bye week are 122-90-3 to the Under (57.5%), including 48-24-1 UNDER (66.7%) since 2019. Since 2009, NFL teams coming off five or more consecutive straight-up losses are 95-77-2 to the Under (55.2%) if they won six or fewer games the previous season, including 39-26-2 UNDER (60%) since 2019.
Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 214-154-7 to the Under (58.2%). The Giants are 47-23-2 to the Under (67.1%) as home underdogs since 2002, including 26-8-2 UNDER (76.5%) since 2019, going under by an average of -5.3 points per game. Finally, the Giants are 19-1-1 to the Under (95%) since November 15, 2020, as home underdogs of less than six points, going under by an average of -9.4 points per game.
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