Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, November 17! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) (-110) at Miami Dolphins
Report: Since 1989, NFL road teams with at least normal rest coming off a bad loss are 31-7-2 ATS (81.6%) before Week 17, covering the spread by an average margin of +4.7 points per game. Since 1992, conference road teams coming off a road game in which they scored 24 or more points are 142-85-2 ATS (62.6%) if they allowed 24 or more points in the game prior to last week’s affair. Since 2012, NFL underdogs of ten points or less coming off an ATS loss are 273-218-16 ATS (55.6%) versus opponents entering off an ATS win in Weeks 1-12, including 123-88-6 ATS (58.3%) since 2019. Since 1989, NFL teams coming off five or more consecutive losses are 31-15-1 ATS (67.4%) following a bye week, covering the spread by an average of +3.8 points per game. Since 1989, Pacific time zone road teams are 35-20-3 ATS (63.6%) versus Eastern time zone opponents in early afternoon games. Las Vegas falls into a very good 198-145-7 ATS (58%) contrarian system that invests on certain undervalued underdogs
Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce is 5-1 as a road underdog of more than three points. Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games dating back to last season. Finally, the Dolphins are 3-23 ATS (11.5%) since November 16, 2003, as home favorites with four or more days of rest coming off a game in which they rushed for less than 80 yards and were not large underdogs, falling short of market expectations by an average of -7.2 points per game.
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins UNDER 44.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph and temperatures of at least 30 degrees are 908-699-38 to the Under (56.5%), including 416-268-14 UNDER (60.8%) since 2018, covering the total by an average margin of -2.1 points per game. Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 401-313-19 to the Under (56.2%). Since 2010, NFL road teams coming off a bye week are 120-88-3 to the Under (57.7%), including 46-22-1 UNDER (67.6%) since 2019, going under by an average of -2.8 points per game. Since 2017, NFL teams coming off a game in which they allowed 40 or more points are 116-88-4 to the Under (56.9%). Since 2000, NFL teams coming off an upset win as underdogs are 134-104-7 to the Under (56.3%). Since 2016, NFL favorites are 91-75-3 to the Under (55%) after playing on Monday Night Football, including 57-42-2 UNDER (57.6%) since 2020.
The foregoing situation improves to 40-27-2 to the Under (59.7%) if they were underdogs on Monday Night Football, including 26-10-1 UNDER (72.2%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -2.8 points per game. Finally, since 2013, NFL road underdogs coming off a double-digit loss in which they had more rushing yards than penalty yards are 106-88-2 to the Under (55%).
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 48 points (-110)
Report: Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 401-313-19 to the Under (56.2%). Since 2017, Sunday Night Football games are 78-47-5 to the Under (63.4%) during the regular season, covering the total by an average margin of -2.5 points per game. Since 1989, NFL road teams from October out whose over/under margin has gone over by fourteen or more points in each of their last two games are 101-77-4 to the Under (56.7%), including 27-13 UNDER (67.5%) since 2015, going under by an average of -3.1 points per game. Since 2008, NFL teams coming off a divisional road loss in which they allowed 35 or more points are 77-57-4 to the Under (58.8%) in games with totals of less than 54 points, including 25-16-2 UNDER (61%) since 2019.
Since 1996, NFL teams coming off a Thursday game in which they scored 31 or more points are 35-19-5 to the Under (64.8%), including 18-8-2 UNDER (69.2%) since 2016, going under by an average of -3.0 points per game. Since 2019, late afternoon and late evening games are 184-141-8 to the Under (56.6%), including 89-67-2 UNDER (57.1%) since 2022. Finally, the Chargers are 19-1-1 to the Under (95%) since November 22, 2010, at home following a win in which they allowed 100 or more rushing yards, covering the total by an average of -8.4 points per game.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 48 points (-110)
Report: Since 2002, divisional games with totals of 45 or more points are 362-242 to the Under (59.9%) in Weeks 11-16, covering the total by an average margin of -2.6 points per game. Since 1989, divisional home favorites in games with totals of 44 or more points with six-plus days of rest are 222-149-4 to the Under (59.8%) versus opponents that allowed fewer than 32 points in their last game, covering the total by an average of -2.1 points per game. Since 2010, NFL road teams coming off a bye week are 120-88-3 to the Under (57.7%), including 46-22-1 UNDER (67.6%) since 2019, going under by an average of -2.8 points per game. Since 2013, NFL teams averaging six or more yards per play are 444-343-23 to the Under (56.4%) from Week 5 forward. Since 1991, NFL teams coming off a game in which they allowed seven or more sacks are 207-157-4 to the Under (56.9%).
Since 1989, NFL teams coming off a bye week that lost back-to-back home games prior to the bye are 11-5-2 to the Under (68.8%). Finally, the Seahawks are 44-29-1 to the Under (60.3%) since 2005 following two or more consecutive losses, including 15-7 UNDER (68.2%) since 2015.
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