Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, October 6! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Indianapolis Colts (+3) (-110) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Report: Since 1989, NFL road underdogs of five points or less that averaged fewer than 31:50 minutes of possession time the previous season are 76-20-4 ATS (79.2%) versus opponents averaging less than 28:00 minutes of possession time and allowing greater than 3.2 yards per rush attempt, including 48-6-2 ATS (88.9%) since 2010, winning by an average of +4.3 points per game and covering the spread by an average of +7.1 points per game. Since 1989, NFL road underdogs of five points or less coming off a game in which they averaged fewer than 5.5 yards per rush attempt are 68-15-3 ATS (81.9%) in Weeks 1-5 versus opponents averaging greater than 3.3 yards per rush attempt and less than 27:50 of possession time if they averaged less than 31:30 of possession time the previous season, including 23-3 ATS (88.5%) since 2015, covering the spread by an average of +6.3 points per game. The Colts are 20-3 SU (87%) and 22-1 ATS (95.7%) since November 1, 2010, coming off a win with at least regular rest versus opponents averaging more than 6.3 rushing first downs and fewer than 27 points per game, winning by an average of +8.6 points and covering by an average of +7.9 points.
The Colts are 17-2 SU and ATS (89.5%) since December 18, 2008, versus divisional opponents that did not commit a turnover in their previous game, winning by +8.9 points per game and covering by +7.6 points per game. Since 2006, NFL favorites of -5 or greater averaging fewer than seventeen points per game are 85-133-10 ATS (39%), including 31-58-7 ATS (34.8%) since 2016, failing to cover by an average of -2.8 points per game. Since 2007, NFL home favorites of less than -4 averaging fewer than 28:00 minutes of possession time are 4-42-5 ATS (8.7%) in Weeks 1-5 versus opponents with four or more days of rest, failing to cover the spread by an average of -8.2 points per game. Finally, since 2005, divisional home favorites are 240-308-15 ATS (43.8%) in the first ten weeks of the regular season.
New York Giants (+7) (-110) at Seattle Seahawks
Report: Since 1992, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points that won fewer than seven games the previous season are 604-474-36 ATS (56%), including 111-73-7 ATS (60.3%) since 2019. The foregoing situation improves to 397-295-20 ATS (57.4%) in games with totals of 50 points or less and to 265-179-19 ATS (59.7%) in games played during the first seven weeks of the regular season. Since 1989, .500 or worse non-division road underdogs of less than +7 are 199-142-6 ATS (58.4%) in Weeks 1-8 with totals of 41.5 to 55.5 points, including 87-45-3 ATS (65.9%) since 2016. Since 1989, NFL conference road underdogs of +6 to +20.5 in Weeks 4-12 are 161-123-8 ATS (56.7%) in games with totals of 40.5 to 47.5 points versus opponents that missed the playoffs the previous season. Since 2006, non-Monday night NFL favorites coming off one loss exact are 276-362-14 ATS (43.3%) versus opponents that are not on an extended losing streak, including 66-117-3 ATS (36.1%) since 2019, failing to cover by an average of -3.0 points per game.
Since 2006, West Coast home teams coming off a road game in the Eastern time zone are 75-99-2 ATS (43.1%), including 25-41-2 ATS (37.9%) since 2019, failing to cover by an average of -3.1 points per game. Finally, since 1995, NFL underdogs of less than four points (or favorites) coming off a game as underdogs in which they recorded 100 or more passing yards than their opponent are 201-260-20 ATS (43.6%), including 35-49-3 ATS (41.7%) since 2019.
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) (-110) at Denver Broncos
Report: Since 2009, NFL road underdogs of +4 or less coming off a game that went under the total are 194-144-9 ATS (57.4%), including 53-37-1 ATS (58.9%) since 2021. Since 1989, NFL road underdogs of less than +6 in games with totals of less than 45 points are 113-81-8 ATS (58.2%) versus opponents with revenge if they have a non-division game on deck, including 28-14-1 ATS (66.7%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +5.0 points per game. Since 1997, NFL underdogs of three points or less are 116-78-12 ATS (59.8%) in Weeks 1-6 versus opponents with double revenge, including 43-23-4 ATS (65.2%) since 2016, covering by an average of +4.3 points per game. Since 2004, divisional underdogs of seven points or less coming off a game in which they committed one or more turnovers are 59-39-3 ATS (60.2%) versus opponents with double revenge arriving off a non-divisional game, including 33-14-2 ATS (70.2%) since 2015, covering by an average of +5.1 points per game. This situation contains a 23-6-2 ATS (79.3%) subset angle involving divisional underdogs of four points or less and has covered the spread by an average of +6.0 points per game since 2018.
Since 2002, NFL teams covering the spread by an average margin of 5 or more points on the season are 345-444-19 ATS (43.7%) versus .600 or worse opponents from Week 5 forward, including 44-71-2 ATS (38.3%) since 2020, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.7 points per game. Since 2006, NFL favorites of -5 or greater averaging fewer than seventeen points per game are 85-133-10 ATS (39%), including 31-58-7 ATS (34.8%) since 2016, failing to cover by an average of -2.8 points per game. Since 2006, divisional favorites of six points or less with double revenge are 88-114-4 ATS (43.6%), including 21-51-2 ATS (29.2%) since 2018, failing to cover by an average of -4.6 points per game. Finally, since 2005, divisional home favorites are 240-308-15 ATS (43.8%) in the first ten weeks of the regular season.
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