Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, October 27! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos UNDER 41.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2008, NFL teams that have allowed 100 or more points combined in their last three games are 188-122-7 to the Under (60.6%), including 56-31 UNDER (64.4%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -3.3 points per game. Since 1990, non-divisional favorites coming off a game as road favorites in which they won by 14 or more points and had 28:00-plus minutes of possession time are 80-61-5 to the Under (56.7%), including 36-17-3 UNDER (67.9%) since 2015, covering the total by an average of -2.9 points per game. Since 1989, NFL teams coming off a road win by fourteen or more points are 80-60-8 to the Under (57.1%) in primetime affairs, including 38-23-3 UNDER (62.3%) since 2016. Since 1996, NFL teams coming off a Thursday game in which they scored 31 or more points are 35-18-5 to the Under (66%), including 18-7-2 UNDER (72%), covering the total by an average of -3.1 points per game. Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 395-307-18 to the Under (56.3%). Since 2011, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 349-268-13 to the Under (56.6%).
Since 2010, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 325-257-15 to the Under (55.8%) versus opponents not entering off a loss by 20 or more points, including 180-137-6 (56.8%) since 2016. Since 2013, NFL road underdogs coming off a double-digit loss in which they had more rushing yards than penalty yards are 105-85-2 to the Under (55.3%). Since 2017, NFL teams coming off a game in which they allowed 40 or more points are 114-85-4 to the Under (57.3%). Finally, the Broncos are 31-4 to the Under (88.6%) following a game as favorites in which they had 27:00 or more minutes of possession time, covering the total by an average of -7.6 points per game. Carolina quarterback Bryce Young returns to the starting lineup after being benched in Week 3 because Andy Dalton sprained his thumb in a car crash. Carolina ranks at or near the bottom of every major defensive category, but the Panthers are getting healthier on the defensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, Denver’s offense ranks at or near the bottom of every major passing category.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 46 points (-110)
Report: Since 2008, NFL teams that have allowed 100 or more points combined in their last three games are 188-122-7 to the Under (60.6%), including 56-31 UNDER (64.4%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -3.3 points per game. Since 2005, NFL teams averaging less than 28 points per game coming off a loss are 191-144-5 to the Under (57%) versus divisional opponents that are (1) averaging fewer than 35 points per game (2) committed two or more turnovers in their last game, and (3) are not one game ahead of them in the win column. This situation has been 75-26 to the Under (74.3%) since 2017, going under by an average of -4.0 points per game. Since 2014, divisional road favorites of three points or less are 78-61-4 to the Under (56.1%), including 39-23-2 UNDER (62.9%) since 2020. Since 2008, divisional home underdogs with revenge for a road loss are 174-139-7 to the Under (55.6%), including 39-22 UNDER (63.9%) since 2021. Since 2011, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 349-268-13 to the Under (56.6%). Since 2010, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 325-257-15 to the Under (55.8%) versus opponents not entering off a loss by 20 or more points, including 180-137-6 (56.8%) since 2016. Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 202-142-6 to the Under (58.7%).
Since 2017, NFL teams coming off a game in which they allowed 40 or more points are 114-85-4 to the Under (57.3%). Tampa Bay wide receiver Chris Godwin is expected to undergo surgery for a dislocated left ankle suffered in the Buccaneers’ loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football and will likely be sidelined for the remainder of the season. Godwin led the team in routes run, targets, receptions, receiving yards, yards after catch and first read/designed targets. Fellow wide receiver Mike Evans suffered a moderate hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined for a few weeks. As a result, Tampa Bay will be missing nearly 50% of its offensive receiving production against the Falcons on Sunday. Evans and Godwin entered Week 7 tied for the league lead in touchdown receptions with five each.
Bonus NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, October 27
- The Tennessee Titans are 0-5 ATS this season and 0-4 ATS versus teams with winning records
- NFL road favorites are 24-13 ATS this season, including 16-2 ATS over the past three weeks
- Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray is 18-7-1 ATS in his career as a road underdog
- The Seattle Seahawks are 17-7 ATS as home underdogs since 2011
- NFL teams returning home and coming off an outright upset win in London are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS, including 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS on the road.
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