Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, October 20! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Carolina Panthers (+8.5) (-110) at Washington Commanders
Report: Since 1989, NFL teams with an against-the-spread (ATS) win percentage of less than 15% are 238-152-12 ATS (61%) versus opponents with a better record from Week 6 forward, including 32-18-1 ATS (64%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.1 points per game. Since 2013, non-divisional road underdogs of four or more points are 73-52-2 ATS (58.4%) in games with totals of 50 or more points, including 34-15-1 ATS (69.4%) since 2020, covering the spread by an average of +4.1 points per game. Since 2015, NFL underdogs coming off a game in which they didn’t allow a sack or throw an interception are 59-46 ATS (56.2%), including 38-24 ATS (61.3%) since 2019. Since 2006, NFL home favorites coming off one loss exact are 276-365-14 ATS (43.1%) in non-Monday affairs versus teams that are not on extended losing streaks, including 66-120-3 ATS (35.5%) since 2019, failing to cover by -3.1 points per game.
Since 2014, NFL home favorites coming off one loss exact are 162-227-8 ATS (41.6%) versus opponents that are not entering off six or more consecutive losses, including 79-128-3 ATS (38.2%) since 2019. Since 2002, NFL teams covering the spread by an average of 5.0 points per game or more are 351-446-20 ATS (44%) versus .600 or worse opponents from Week 5 forward, including 42-62-3 ATS (40.4%) since 2021, failing to cover the spread by an average of -2.3 points per game. This situation plummets to 124-185-9 ATS (40.1%) versus .250 or worse opposition from Week 5 forward. Since 1991, NFL teams with an average margin of victory 20 or more points per game greater than their opponent are 85-136-5 ATS (38.5%).
Since 2000, NFL teams averaging 4.4 or more yards per rush attempt are 133-186-4 ATS (41.7%) following a game in which they had fewer than 75 rushing yards. Over the last 30 years, Washington is just 13-40 ATS as a favorite of six points or more, which is the worst mark of any team in the NFL over that span. Finally, since 2018, NFL teams averaging 28 or more points per game coming off a loss are 30-49-1 ATS (38%) in September and October affairs, failing to cover by an average of 2.8 points per game.
Seattle Seahawks (+3) (-110) at Atlanta Falcons
Report: Since 1989, NFL teams with an against-the-spread (ATS) win percentage of less than 15% are 238-152-12 ATS (61%) versus opponents with a better record from Week 6 forward, including 32-18-1 ATS (64%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.1 points per game. Since 1989, .500 or worse non-division road underdogs of less than +7 are 200-145-6 ATS (58%) in Weeks 1-8 with totals of 41.5 to 55.5 points, including 88-48-3 ATS (64.7%) since 2016. Since 2006, NFL road underdogs of +3 to +14 coming off a loss in which they had three or more turnovers are 121-97-10 ATS (55.5%) in games with totals of greater than 43 points, including 23-9-4 ATS (71.9%) since 2020, covering the spread by an average of +3.0 points per game. NFL teams coming off consecutive straight-up home losses are just 48-76 SU (39%) in their next game. Since 2019, Mountain or Pacific time zone teams who play in the Eastern time zone are 82-48-4 ATS (63%). The Falcons’ offensive line has allowed the lowest pressure rate in non-blitz situations; Seattle is ranked 22nd in blitz rate this season.
Since 2008, non-divisional home favorites of four points or less are 178-231-13 ATS (43.5%) in Weeks 1-9 of the regular season. The Falcons are just 8-18-1 ATS following a straight-up win (worst mark in the NFL over that span), including 4-10 ATS in their last fourteen games off a win. Finally, the Seahawks are 38-10 ATS (79.2%) since 2006 following two or more consecutive losses, covering by an average of +5.8 points per game.
Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) (-110) at San Francisco 49ers
Report: Since 2009, NFL road underdogs of +4 or less coming off a game that went under the total are 194-145-9 ATS (57.2%), including 53-38-1 ATS (58.2%) since 2021. Since 1989, NFL teams coming off a regular season bye are 50-34-2 ATS (59.5%) if they are on a four-plus game winning streak. Since 2011, NFL non-divisional road underdogs of less than seven points are 233-177-1 ATS (56.8%) in games with totals of 41.5 to 55.5 points in Weeks 1-8, including 105-64-3 ATS (62.1%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average of +2.6 points per game. Since 2014, NFL home teams that won eleven or more games the previous season are 68-94-1 ATS (42%) following a win as favorites if they’re averaging more than 23.5 points per game over their last three contests. Since 1989, NFL favorites of less than six points (or underdogs) are 89-108-7 ATS (45.2%) versus opponents they failed to cover the spread against in the playoffs.
Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 24-10 SU and 25-8-1 ATS as a favorite of three points or less or an underdog and 10-3 SU and 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his NFL career. Mahomes is 46-12 SU in road/neutral site games in his career, and 16-2 SU in road/neutral games over the last three seasons versus opponents he defeated in the previous meeting. The Chiefs are 5-0 despite outscoring their opponents by only 33 points, which is the lowest point differential by a 5-0 team since the 2004 Jets. Finally, since 2008, non-division home favorites of four points or less are 178-231-13 ATS (43.5%) in Weeks 1-9, including 59-85-4 ATS (41%) since 2019, failing to cover by an average of -2.6 points per game.
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