Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, October 13! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants UNDER 48.5 points
Report: Since 1989, NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph and temperatures of at least 30 degrees are 890-679-36 to the Under (56.7%), including 398-248-12 UNDER (61.6%) since 2018, covering the total by an average margin of -2.2 points per game. Since 2017, Thursday Night Football games are 76-45-4 to the Under (62.8%) during the regular season, going under by an average of -2.4 points per game. Since 2017, NFL teams coming off a game in which they allowed 40 or more points are 113-83-4 to the Under (57.7%). Since 2005, NFL teams coming off road overtime games decided by three points or less are 111-81-4 to the Under (57.8%), including 42-19-2 UNDER (68.9%) since 2018, covering the total by an average of -2.9 points per game. Since 2008, NFL teams that have allowed 100 or more points combined in their last three games are 185-120-7 to the Under (60.7%), including 53-29 UNDER (64.6%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -3.3 points per game. The Giants are 17-0 to the Under since 2020 as home underdogs of less than six points, going under by an average of -9.4 points per game.
The Giants are 45-22-2 to the Under (67.2%) since 2002 as home underdogs, including 21-5-2 UNDER (80.8%) since 2020, going under by an average of -6.0 points per game. As home underdogs of less than a touchdown, the Giants are 30-7-1 to the Under (81.1%) since 2016. Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 198-131-6 to the Under (60.2%), including 138-83-5 UNDER (62.4%) since 2022, covering the total by an average of -1.8 points per game. Since 2014, NFL road favorites of greater than three points are 120-88-8 to the Under (57.7%) in Weeks 1-8, including 97-64-8 UNDER (60.2%) since 2017. Since 2019, late afternoon or evening NFL games are 179-131-7 to the Under (57.7%), including 84-57-1 UNDER (59.6%) since 2022. Finally, the Giants are 28-8-1 to the Under (77.8%) since October 28, 2019, as underdogs versus opponents averaging 22.5 or more points per game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints UNDER 41.5 points
Report: Since 2014, NFL home underdogs of less than four points are 157-109-8 to the Under (59%) in games with totals of 45 points or less, including 84-34-3 UNDER (71.2%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -3.0 points per game. Since 2014, NFL road favorites of greater than three points are 120-88-8 to the Under (57.7%) in Weeks 1-8, including 97-64-8 UNDER (60.2%) since 2017. Since 2014, NFL underdogs in games with totals of less than 42 points are 113-82-4 to the Under (57.9%) in their first eight games of the regular season. Since 2015, divisional home underdogs that went under the total in the previous meeting with the opponent are 89-63-6 to the Under (58.6%), including 26-11-2 UNDER (70.3%) since 2022, covering the total by an average of -4.6 points per game. Since 2008, NFL teams coming off a divisional road loss in which they allowed 35 or more points are 76-53-4 to the Under (58.9%) in games with totals of less than 54 points, including 21-12-2 UNDER (63.6%) since 2020.
Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 198-131-6 to the Under (60.2%), including 138-83-5 UNDER (62.4%) since 2022, covering the total by an average of -1.8 points per game. Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 389-304-17 to the Under (56.1%). Finally, New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr is out indefinitely because of an oblique injury he suffered during Monday’s game against the Chiefs. Either Jake Haener, a 2023 fourth-round pick or rookie Spencer Rattler will assume the starting role against the Buccaneers. Haener was 2-of-7 passing in Week 5, attempting only two passes that traveled more than eight yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos UNDER 35.5 points
Report: Since 2010, NFL road teams coming off a bye week are 117-86-3 to the Under (57.6%), including 43-20-1 UNDER (68.3%) since 2019, covering the total by an average margin of -2.5 points per game. Since 1997, NFL teams coming off a bye are 102-79-3 to the Under (56.4%) in games with totals of less than 40 points. Since 2011, NFL games with totals of less than 38 points are 74-47-2 to the Under (61.2%), including 62-30-2 UNDER (67.4%) in divisional affairs. This situation improves to 40-14 to the Under (74.1%) since 2019, going under by an average of -4.3 points per game. Since 2014, NFL home underdogs of less than +4 are 157-109-8 to the Under (59%) in games with totals of 45 points or less, including 84-34-3 UNDER (71.2%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -3.0 points per game. Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 198-131-6 to the Under (60.2%), including 138-83-5 UNDER (62.4%) since 2022, covering the total by an average of -1.8 points per game.
The Broncos are 31-3 to the Under (91.2%) following a game as favorites in which they had 27:00 or more minutes of possession time, covering the total by an average of -7.6 points per game. The Broncos are 21-2 to the Under (91.3%) since 2009 in games priced between -3 and +3 versus opponents with a worse record averaging more than 65 rushing yards per game, going under by an average of -8.8 points per game. Finally, since 2014, divisional road favorites of three points or less are 77-59-4 to the Under (56.6%), including 38-21-2 UNDER (64.4%) since 2020.
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