Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, October 12! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers UNDER 44.5 points (-110)
Report: The weather forecast in Green Bay on Sunday is calling for 10 mph winds, which is significant in that NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph are 942-752-38 to the Under (55.6%) since 1989, including 450-321-16 UNDER (58.4%) since 2018. Since 2008, NFL teams that have allowed 100 or more total points in their last three games are 197-134-7 to the Under (59.5%), including 65-43 UNDER (60.2%) since 2020, going under by an average margin of -2.4 points per game. Since 2014, double-digit underdogs are 154-106-3 to the Under (59.2%), while teams entering off an overtime affair are 135-96-5 to the Under (58.4%), including 86-52 UNDER (62.3%) since 2021.
Finally, Green Bay is coming off a bye week, and NFL teams entering off a bye are 87-56-5 to the Under (60.8%) since the 17-game NFL schedule was instituted.
Los Angeles Rams Baltimore Ravens UNDER 44.5 points (-110)
Report: The weather forecast in Baltimore on Sunday is calling for rain and 15 mph winds, which is significant in that NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph are 942-752-38 to the Under (55.6%) since 1989, including 450-321-16 UNDER (58.4%) since 2018. Since 2008, NFL teams that have allowed 100 or more total points in their last three games are 197-134-7 to the Under (59.5%), including 65-43 UNDER (60.2%) since 2020, going under by an average margin of -2.4 points per game. Los Angeles arrives off an overtime loss to the 49ers, which is significant in that NFL teams entering off an overtime affair are 135-96-5 to the Under (58.4%), including 86-52 UNDER (62.3%) since 2021.
Finally, since 2013, NFL teams averaging 6.0 or more yards per play are 464-370-23 to the Under (55.6%) from Week 5 forward. With Los Angeles standing at 60-30-4 to the Under (66.7%) since 1998 versus opponents averaging fewer than 25 rush attempts per game from Week 4 out, take the Under
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 52.5 points (-110)
Report: The weather forecast in Kansas City Sunday night calls for 12 mph winds, which is significant in that NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph are 942-752-38 to the Under (55.6%) since 1989, including 450-321-16 UNDER (58.4%) since 2018. Since 2017, Sunday Night Football games played during the regular season are 85-53-5 to the Under (61.6%). Since 2015, Sunday Night Football games between non-conference teams are 62-22-6 to the Under (73.8%), including 32-8-4 UNDER (80%) since 2021, going under by an average margin of -4.6 points per game. We should embrace the high total in this game because NFL games with totals of 50 or more points are 40-27-1 to the Under (59.7%) since 2022.
Finally, Kansas City returns home from a Monday Night affair, which is relevant because NFL favorites are 52-39-3 to the Under (57.1%) after playing under the Monday night lights.
Bonus NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, October 12
- Since 1999, NFL home underdogs coming out of their bye week are 25-36-2 ATS (41%).
- Since 2015, NFL home favorites coming out of their bye week are 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%) vs. non-conference opponents.
- Since 1999, NFL road favorites coming out of their bye week are 94-63-4 ATS (59.1%)
- The home team is 20-7-1 SU and 19-8-1 ATS in the Pittsburgh/Cleveland rivalry since 2012.
- Since 2015, the Cleveland Browns are 22-40 ATS (35.5%) versus divisional opponents.
- Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 8-1 SU and ATS as a divisional home favorite.
- Since 2020, the Dallas Cowboys are 27-9 SU and 24-12 ATS vs. .499 or worse opponents since 2020.
- The Green Bay Packers are 15-4 to the Under in their last nineteen post-bye week games.
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