Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, September 28! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Louisiana Tech at Florida International (+3) (-110)
Report: Since 2009, college football teams coming off a home loss by fewer than five points are 227-164-4 ATS (58.1%) in Weeks 1-6 of the regular season, including 104-69-1 ATS (60.1%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.6 points per game. Since 1990, conference home underdogs of three points or greater with revenge in games with totals of more than 50 points are 89-55-3 ATS (61.8%) in Weeks 1-9, covering the spread by an average of +3.1 points per game. Since 2020, college football home teams coming off a game in which their offense had fewer than 12 third downs attempted are 257-198-8 ATS (56.5%) from Game 3 forward. Since 2012, college football teams coming off an ATS loss by three or more points in which their opponent committed ten or more penalties are 181-234-15 ATS (43.6%) versus foes entering off a home game, including 45-73-4 ATS (38.1%) since 2021. Since 2011, Conference USA teams with fewer than two wins are 188-245-9 ATS (43.4%) if their average total on the season is less than 59 points, including 42-80-3 ATS (34.4%) since 2020, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.8 points per game.
Louisiana Tech is just 6-17 ATS in conference games over the last three seasons, including 1-7 ATS in two of the last three years. Finally, my math model favors Florida International, and the Panthers are a perfect 6-0 ATS as home underdogs of nine points or less with revenge and 12-3 ATS coming off a game in which they scored 35-plus points versus opponents entering off consecutive wins.
Akron (+10) (-110) at Ohio
Report: Akron’s record is misleading in that the Zips played a brutal non-conference schedule to commence the 2024 campaign, including games against Rutgers, South Carolina, and Ohio State. My math model favors Ohio by single digits. The Bobcats are dealing with quarterback issues as starter Parker Navarro was benched in Week 3 and missed last week’s game against Kentucky due to an injury. Since 1989, MAC road underdogs of seven or more points are 72-51-1 ATS (58.5%) in games with totals of less than 47 points. Since 1996, conference road underdogs of 7 to 24 points in games with totals of 39.5 to 47.5 points are 84-29-4 ATS (74.3%) in Weeks 1-5, covering the spread by an average of +6.1 points per game. Since 1989, conference road underdogs of seven or more points are 397-284-21 ATS (58.3%) in games with totals of 47 points or less. Since 2006, college football road underdogs of less than +13 with revenge are 325-221-12 ATS (59.5%) in Weeks 3-13, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.2 points per game. Since 1996, college football home favorites of -16 or less coming off a game in which they scored fewer than ten points are 263-363-14 ATS (42%), including 66-99-8 ATS (39.6%) since 2017, failing to cover the spread by an average of -3.2 points per game.
Since 2014, college football teams coming off a game in which they allowed 25 or more first downs are 370-482-22 ATS (43.4%) versus opponents that had a negative turnover margin in the previous meeting, including 82-141-7 ATS (36.8%) since 2021, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.6 points per game. Finally, since 2021, college football teams that outrushed their opponent by 75 or more yards and committed less than six penalties in the previous meeting are 43-63-2 ATS (40.6%), provided the opponent has fewer than three wins. This situation is 9-38 ATS (19.1%) since the beginning of the 2023-24 season, failing to cover the spread by an average of -9.8 points per game.
Louisiana-Monroe (+6.5) (-110) at Troy
Report: Since 2000, college football conference road underdogs of +3 or greater are 434-303-23 ATS (58.9%) in games with totals of less than 46 points, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.4 points per game. Since 1989, college football conference underdogs of +7 or greater are 397-284-21 ATS (58.3%) in games with totals of 47 points or less. Since 1989, unranked college football road underdogs averaging 125 or more rushing yards per game are 432-307-22 ATS (58.5%) in games with totals of 47 points or less. Since 1996, conference road underdogs of 7 to 24 points in games with totals of 39.5 to 47.5 points are 84-29-4 ATS (74.3%) in Weeks 1-5, covering the spread by an average of +6.1 points per game. Since 2008, conference road underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points with totals of 42 to 70 points with revenge for a loss as home underdogs are 184-128-6 ATS (59%), including 101-65-4 ATS (60.8%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.8 points per game. Since 1995, Game 4 road underdogs coming off their first loss of the season (and failed to cover the spread) are 54-33-2 ATS (62.1%), including 12-6-1 ATS (66.7%) since 2018, covering by an average of +4.7 points per game.
Since 2009, Sun Belt Conference underdogs in Weeks 1-4 are 205-165-11 ATS (55.4%), including 68-42-2 ATS (61.8%) since 2020, covering the spread by an average of +3.6 points per game. Finally, Troy is one of the least experienced teams in the nation, ranking 129th in returning production (4 starters), and is a money-burning 2-13-1 ATS at home following a home game.
Massachusetts (+17) (-110) at Miami Ohio
Report: Since 1991, unranked road underdogs averaging 125 or more rushing yards per game with totals of 47 points or less are 432-307-22 ATS (58.5%), covering the spread by an average of +2.2 points per game. Since 2008, college football road underdogs of greater than five points in games with totals of 46 points or less are 466-371-24 ATS (55.7%) in Games 1-12 of the season. Since 2019, non-conference underdogs with revenge for a loss from the previous season are 32-14-3 ATS (69.6%), including 23-6-1 ATS (79.3%) since 2022, exceeding market expectations by an average of +7.5 points per game. Since 2004, college football home favorites coming off a game in which they scored fewer than ten points are 268-365-22 ATS (42.3%), including 148-209-15 ATS (41.5%) since 2013, failing to cover the spread by an average of -2.7 points per game. Since 1998, college football home favorites of -10.5 to -27.5 are 25-69 ATS (26.6%) in Weeks 2-8 if one additional parameter is satisfied, including 15-46 ATS (24.6%) since 2022, falling short of market expectations by an average of -6.0 points per game.
Since 1989, winless college football teams coming off a game with totals of 47 points or less are 29-61-3 ATS (32.2%) versus opponents they were favored against in the previous meeting, including 7-22 ATS (24.1%) since 2019, failing to cover the spread by an average of -7.5 points per game. Since 2020, large college football favorites coming off an upset loss as favorites of fourteen or more points are 60-83-4 ATS (42%). Since 2001, .499 or worse MAC favorites of ten or more points coming off a double-digit loss are 37-62-6 ATS (37.4%), failing to cover the spread by an average of -4.5 points per game.
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