Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, September 27! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan (-5.5) (-110)
Report: Central Michigan enters off a 49-10 win over Wagner, which is relevant in that college football home teams coming off a 35+ point win are 810-660-34 ATS (55.1%) versus opponents that are not off a road win. This situation contains a very good 212-141-12 ATS (60.1%) subset angle involving home favorites versus opponents off a game in which they allowed more than 28 points. Central Michigan’s defensive effort last week is a good omen for Saturday’s affair because college football teams entering off a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 passing yards and less than 24 points are 220-166-8 ATS (57%) since 2017.
Finally, Eastern Michigan has allowed 48 and 31 points, respectively, in their last two games, and road teams coming off a win that allowed 30 or more points in back-to-back games are 84-127-3 ATS (39.8%) versus opponents entering off a win, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -3.8 points per game.
Tennessee at Mississippi State (+6.5) (-110)
Report: Mississippi State has started the 2025 campaign with four consecutive wins, including a 24-20 upset over Arizona State, which is notable in that college football home underdogs coming off four or more consecutive wins are 152-119-6 ATS (56.1%), including 57-27-2 ATS (67.9%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +5.3 points per game. Finally, Tennessee is just 4-12 SU (25%) and 2-14 ATS (12.5%) versus opponents coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins in regular season affairs, falling short of market expectations by an average margin of -6.2 points per game.
USC (-6.5) (-110) at Illinois
Report: Since 1996, ranked favorites of at least two points with an ATS win percentage of less than 58% are 212-150-8 ATS (58.6%) versus worse-ranked opponents, including 103-62-4 ATS (62.4%) since 2016, covering the spreads by an average margin of +3.2 points per game. Illinois is coming off a 63-10 loss to Indiana, which is significant in that college football divisional road teams are 158-106-6 ATS (59.8%) versus opponents off a loss by 46 or more points, including 26-14 ATS (65%) since 2020, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.9 points per game. That was Illinois’ first loss of the season, which is notable because previously 3-0 or better teams coming off their first loss are 226-299-11 ATS (43%), including 99-149-8 ATS (39.9%) if they lost by more than thirteen points and 44-73-4 ATS (37.6%) if they scored ten points or less.
Finally, since 2004, conferenced home teams coming off a loss by more than 45 points are 81-103-5 ATS (44%) since 2004.
Oregon at Penn State UNDER 52.5 points (-110)
Report: Oregon arrives off a 41-7 win over Oregon State, while Penn State enters off a 52-6 win over Villanova, which is significant in that college football games involving teams that are both off blowout home wins are 428-323-23 to the Under (57%). Similarly, college football teams coming off a home win by 28 or more points are 54-21-6 to the Under (72%) in Weeks 2-12 versus opponents entering off a win by more than 28 points, provided the game has a total of 40.5 to 52.5 points, going under by an average margin of -5.0 points per game. Since 2013, college football home favorites averaging more than 35.0 points per game are 301-232-12 to the Under (56.5%) following a game in which they scored 50 or more points. Since 2016, regular season underdogs ranked in the Top 12 are 93-75-5 to the Under (55.4%), provided one additional parameter is satisfied.
Finally, since 1990, college football underdogs of less than four points with a 4-0 record are 21-11 to the Under (65.6%) in Game 5 of the season, going under by an average margin of -5.9 points per game.
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