Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, September 21! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
USC at Michigan (+5.5) (-110)
Report: Since 2002, college football conference underdogs coming off a non-conference game against an unranked opponent are 219-168-8 ATS (56.6%) with revenge versus ranked opponents, including 55-36-2 ATS (60.4%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.8 points per game. Since 2020, ranked college football home teams are 107-57 SU (65.2%) and 93-66-5 ATS (58.5%) versus ranked opponents, including 52-34-3 ATS (60.5%) since 2022, covering the spread by an average of +3.0 points per game. Since 1989, Game 3 college football road teams coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are 73-105-1 ATS (41%) if they are not getting four points or more. This situation is 29-42 ATS (40.8%) in conference affairs, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.3 points per game. Since 1989, college football road favorites of less than eight points coming off consecutive SU and ATS wins are 29-47-1 ATS (38.2%) in Game 3, including 18-31-1 ATS (36.7%) since 2008. The Trojans are 17-41 ATS (29.3%) following a game in which they did not cover the spread by more than 31 points, provided one additional matchup parameter is satisfied.
My math model favors USC by less than one point and the Wolverines are a profitable 29-16-1 ATS (64.4%) over the last three seasons. Michigan is playing its fourth consecutive home game and was 22-0 straight-up at home entering the 2024 campaign. The Wolverines are 18-3 SU (85.7%) and 16-4-1 ATS (80%) since 2020, coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 143 rushing yards in games with totals of less than 51 points, covering the spread by an average of +5.6 points per game. Finally, Michigan placekicker Dominic Zvada, a two-year starter at Arkansas State, is a perfect 5-for-5 on field-goal attempts – including making attempts from 52, 53 and 55 yards – and has converted all his extra-point tries.
USC at Michigan UNDER 46.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2002, college football teams with totals seven or more points less than the totals in each of their previous two games are 971-694-35 to the Under (58.3%). Since 1990, double-digit college football favorites coming off a game in which they had over 300 rushing yards are 693-496-32 to the Under (58.3%) versus opponents entering off a game in which they had more than 45 rushing yards, covering the total by an average margin of -1.8 points per game. Since 2001, college football teams coming off a home game in which they had more than 300 rushing yards are 668-480-27 to the Under (58.2%) versus opponents allowing fewer than 225 rushing yards per game in Weeks 1-12 of the regular season, including 360-251-17 UNDER (58.9%) since 2015. Since 1989, college football underdogs of less than +17 coming off a shutout win are 149-93-6 to the Under (61.6%) in game with totals of 49 points or less, covering the total by an average of -2.5 points per game. Since 2005, college football teams coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than six points are 74-42 to the Under (63.8%) in September affairs, provided one additional parameter is satisfied, including 56-28 UNDER (66.7%) since 2022, covering the total by an average of -4.7 points per game.
Michigan is 12-2-1 to the Under (85.7%) since 2020, in the first four weeks of the regular season, going under by an average of -6.5 points per game. Finally, Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore announced earlier this week that junior Alex Orji has replaced senior Davis Warren at quarterback. Warren had three interceptions and only 122 passing yards in last week’s lackluster 28-18 victory over Arkansas State. Orji provides a dual threat, and I expect the Wolverines to utilize his legs on Saturday to keep the clock running.
TCU at SMU (+3) (-110)
Report: SMU is coming off an early-season bye week, which is significant in that college football teams coming off a bye are 80-48-5 ATS (62.5%) since 2000 versus opponents with six or fewer days of rest entering off a game in which they had less than 37 rushing attempts, including 47-23-4 ATS (67.1%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +3.3 points per game. SMU suffered an 18-15 loss at BYU before its bye, but the Mustangs pass defense was excellent, limiting quarterback Jake Retzlaff to a 29.7 QBR with two interceptions. Since 2005, college football teams with at least one loss and entering off a bye are 52-29-2 ATS (64.2%) versus opponents entering off a game in which they posted a QBR of less than 95.0, covering the spread by an average of +2.5 points per game. Since 2011, college football teams coming off a bye are 269-212-16 ATS (55.9%) following a game with a negative turnover margin versus opponents with less than three wins, including 119-80-2 ATS (59.8%) since 2019. Since 2005, college football teams with seven or more days of rest coming off a game in which they committed three or more turnovers are 148-95-3 ATS (60.9%), including 109-67-1 ATS (61.9%) since 2021.
Since 2009, college football teams coming off a home loss by less than five points are 224-161-4 ATS (58.2%) in Weeks 1-6 of the season, including 130-84-1 ATS (60.7%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +2.6 points per game. Since 2010, college football teams coming off a home loss by less than four points are 116-65-4 ATS (64.1%) in the first four weeks of the regular season, including 56-29-1 ATS (65.9%) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +4.0 points per game. Since 2008, non-conference underdogs of four points or less with revenge are 179-137-8 ATS (56.6%), including 60-42-2 ATS (58.8%) since 2019. Since 2019, college football favorites of -3 or less (or underdogs) coming off a game in which allowed fewer than 362 total yards are 172-122-5 ATS (58.5%) versus opponents off two or more consecutive ATS losses, covering the spread by an average of +2.6 points per game. Finally, since 2018, college football teams coming off a home win by less than four points (or a straight-up loss) in which their opponent had multiple fumbles are just 68-88-3 ATS (43.6%), including 26-61-1 ATS (29.9%) since 2020 and 12-32 ATS (27.3%) since 2022, failing to cover the spread by an average of -6.4 points per game.
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