Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, September 14! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Massachusetts (+4.5) (-110) at Buffalo
Report: Since 1991, unranked college football road underdogs averaging 125 or more rushing yards per game are 427-295-22 ATS (59.1%) in games with totals of less than 47 points, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.4 points per game. Since 2007, college football road underdogs of fewer than thirteen points are 323-216-12 ATS (59.9%) with revenge versus unranked opponents, exceeding market expectations by an average of +2.3 points per game. Since 2007, college football road underdogs of less than seven points are 754-591-28 ATS (56.1%) in Week 2 forward provided they have fewer than four wins, including 429-315-16 ATS (57.7%) since 2016. Since 2008, non-conference underdogs of four points or less with revenge are 177-135-8 ATS (56.7%), including 58-40-2 ATS (59.2%) since 2019. Finally, Buffalo is 0-19 SU and 0-18-1 ATS as an underdog in games with totals of less than 50 points entering off a game in which they were underdogs, losing by an average of -19.3 points per game and failing to cover the spread by an average of -10.8 points per game.
Boston College at Missouri (-16.5) (-110)
Report: Since 1989, college football teams coming off a win by 35 or more points are 773-624-34 ATS (55.3%) versus opponents not entering off a road win. Since 2004, .750 or greater college football home teams coming off a win by 35 or more points are 611-507-25 ATS (55%), including 107-83-6 ATS (56.3%) with win percentages of .751 or greater. These home squads have covered the spread by an average margin of +2.1 points per game since 2019. Since 2020, ranked college football home teams are 92-65-5 ATS (58.6%) versus ranked opponents, including 51-33-3 ATS (60.7%) since 2022, covering the spread by an average of +3.0 points per game. Since 1999, ranked double-digit favorites are 141-109-2 ATS (56.4%) versus ranked opponents, including 57-35-1 ATS (62%) since 2018, covering by an average of +5.2 points per game.
Since 1990, ranked college football home favorites of less than three points in games with totals of greater than 45 points are 183-126-9 ATS (59.2%) versus ranked opponents, including 57-37-4 ATS (60.6%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average of +3.0 points per game. Finally, since 2015, double-digit non-conference home favorites of less than 18 points are 252-211-12 ATS (55%).
Florida International (+5.5) (-110) at Florida Atlantic
Report: Since 2004, college football home favorites coming off a game in which they scored fewer than ten points are just 263-362-22 ATS (42.1%), including 143-206-15 ATS (41%) since 2013, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -2.8 points per game. Since 1999, college football home favorites of -16 or less coming off a game in which they scored fewer than ten points are 211-330-13 ATS (39%), including 114-185-11 ATS (38.1%) since 2010, failing to cover the spread by an average of -3.4 points per game. Since 1989, winless college football teams coming off a game that had a total of 47 points or less are 27-61-3 ATS (30.7%) versus opponents they were favored against in the previous meeting, including 8-24 ATS (25%) since 2018, failing to cover the spread by an average of -6.4 points per game.
Since 2007, college football road underdogs of less than seven points are 754-591-28 ATS (56.1%) in Week 2 forward provided they have fewer than four wins, including 429-315-16 ATS (57.7%) since 2016. Since 2008, college football road underdogs of 5.5 or more points in Weeks 1-12 are 460-360-24 ATS (56.1%) in games with totals of 46 points or less. Finally, since 1997, college football road teams that have failed to cover the spread in their previous five meetings with the opponent are 61-40 SU (60.4%) and 62-37-2 ATS (62.6%), provided one additional parameter is satisfied. These road warriors have exceeded market expectations by an average of +2.9 points per game over the last 27 years.
College Football Betting Trends for Saturday, September 14
- Since 1989, college football teams coming off a game in which they struggled to run the ball are 178-114-3 to the Under (61%) in games with totals of greater than 44 points during Weeks 1-4, including 88-44-1 UNDER (66.7%) since 2016, covering the total by an average of -3.1 points per game
- Since 1989, college football favorites coming off a win by more than 22 points in games with totals of fewer than 61 points are 228-167-9 to the Under (57.7%) versus opponents entering off a win by more than 22 points
- Since 1989, college football teams coming off a game as favorites in which they had a time of possession between 22:01 and 29:59 minutes are 549-422-23 to the Under (56.5%)
- Since 2015, college football teams coming off a game in which they were underdogs of nine points or less are 136-106-12 ATS (56.2%) following one or more ATS wins versus opponents entering off a game that went under the total by 20 or more points, including 62-35 SU (63.9%) and 61-33-3 ATS (64.9%) since 2020, winning by an average of +5.9 points per game and covering by an average of +4.6 points per game
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