Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, August 2! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (-190)
Report: The fact that the Mets are large favorites is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2653-1004 SU (72.6%; +2.4% ROI) and 1967-1480 RL (57.1%; +2.9% ROI) since 2007, including 1521-527 SU (74.3%; +3.9% ROI) and 1201-848 RL (58.6%; +3.0% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2542-1022 SU (71.3%; +1.1% ROI) and 1656-1390 RL (+1.4% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 971-362 SU (72.8%; +2.0% ROI) and 738-594 RL (55.4%; +1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites with immediate revenge are 830-334 SU (71.3%; +5.5% ROI) and 535-466 RL (+6.2% ROI) in early afternoon affairs, winning by an average margin of +1.7 runs per game. New York falls into a very strong 1619-680 SU (70.4%; +2.1% ROI) and 1010-905 RL (+2.4% ROI) Home Favorite Run Differential System of mine that dates to 2004 and has won by an average of +1.8 runs per game.
Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2925-5192 SU (36%; -4.1% ROI) and 4157-3541 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 913-1779 SU (33.9%; -7.8% ROI) and 1359-1329 RL (-6.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Finally, since 2002, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 902-2197 SU (29.1%; -10.4% ROI) and 1259-1457 RL (-6.3% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 325-888 SU (26.8%; -16.0% ROI) and 530-683 RL (-10.1% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.0 runs per game.
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs (-240)
Report: The fact that the Cubs are large favorites is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2653-1004 SU (72.6%; +2.4% ROI) and 1967-1480 RL (57.1%; +2.9% ROI) since 2007, including 1521-527 SU (74.3%; +3.9% ROI) and 1201-848 RL (58.6%; +3.0% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Since 2004, non-divisional home favorites of greater than -170 coming off a win as favorites are 210-92 SU (69.5%; +4.7% ROI) if they are larger favorites in Game 2, including 85-35 SU (70.8%; +6.4% ROI) since 2017, winning by an average margin of +1.5 runs per game. The Orioles are coming off back-to-back losses, which is noteworthy in that .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1291-2602 SU (33.2%; -8.0% ROI) and 1720-1567 RL (-2.7% ROI), including 402-834 SU (32.5%; -7.0% ROI) and 624-612 RL (-2.8% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.5 runs per game.
Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2925-5192 SU (36%; -4.1% ROI) and 4157-3541 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 913-1779 SU (33.9%; -7.8% ROI) and 1359-1329 RL (-6.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Finally, since 2002, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 902-2197 SU (29.1%; -10.4% ROI) and 1259-1457 RL (-6.3% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 325-888 SU (26.8%; -16.0% ROI) and 530-683 RL (-10.1% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.0 runs per game.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-240) at Colorado Rockies
Report: The fact that the Pirates are large favorites is good news for the road squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2653-1004 SU (72.6%; +2.4% ROI) and 1967-1480 RL (57.1%; +2.9% ROI) since 2007, including 1521-527 SU (74.3%; +3.9% ROI) and 1201-848 RL (58.6%; +3.0% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Similarly, large MLB favorites in games with totals of greater than eight runs are 2297-901 SU (71.8%; +2.7% ROI) and 1805-1385 RL (56.6%; +2.9% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -200 or greater are 775-330 SU (70.1%; +1.6% ROI) and 623-435 RL (58.9%; +2.0% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. This situation is 617-282 SU (68.6%) versus .449 or worse opponents, winning by an average of +2.1 runs per game. In contrast, divisional home underdogs of greater than +150 are 391-811 SU (32.5%; -11.1% ROI) and 539-658 RL (-8.2% ROI) since 2007, losing by an average of -2.0 runs per game.
Finally, Colorado is coming off a 17-16 win over the Pirates, which is notable in that MLB home underdogs entering off a game in which they allowed ten or more runs are 555-832 SU (40%; -8.1% ROI) and 648-593 RL (-5.3% ROI) since 2005, losing by an average margin of -1.1 runs per game.
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