Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, July 5! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies (-170)
Starting Pitchers: Reds: Nick Lodolo (5-5, 3.52 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 85 strikeouts); Phillies: Ranger Suarez (7-2, 2.00 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 67 strikeouts)
Report: Philadelphia is coming off a 9-6 loss to the Reds on Friday, which is significant in that large MLB home favorites with immediate revenge are 826-331 SU (71.4%; +5.6% ROI) and 533-461 RL (+6.6% ROI) since 2003, in early afternoon games, including 359-137 SU (72.4%; +6.9% ROI) and 275-220 RL (55.6%; +8.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.8 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Reds have strung together back-to-back wins, which is noteworthy because MLB road underdogs entering off two or more consecutive wins are 1834-2701 SU (40.4%; -4.3% ROI) and 2665-1859 RL (-2.1% ROI) since 2009. Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2905-5171 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 4130-3527 RL (-2.8% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 893-1758 SU (33.7%; -8.3% ROI) and 1332-1315 RL (-6.5% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game.
Finally, since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2492-4462 SU (35.8%; -4.5% ROI) and 3553-3035 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 708-1444 SU (32.9%; -10.0% ROI) and 1077-1071 RL (-6.6% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game.
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (-177)
Starting Pitchers: Angels: Jack Kochanowicz (3-8, 5.44 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 61 strikeouts); Blue Jays: Max Scherzer (0-0, 4.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 12 strikeouts)
Report: Since 2003, MLB home favorites of -125 or greater coming off a win in which they had six or fewer hits are 1467-828 SU (63.9%; +2.7% ROI), winning by an average margin of +1.1 runs per game. Since 2012, MLB home favorites in Game 2+ of a series coming off a walk-off win in which they scored first are 320-195 SU (62.1%; +3.1% ROI) and 234-280 RL (+4.2% ROI), winning by an average margin of +1.0 runs per game. Since 2015, the Blue Jays are 101-68 SU (59.8%; +4.1% ROI) and 87-82 RL (+5.6% ROI) in home games with totals of nine or more runs, including 45-20 SU (69.2%; +10% ROI) and 36-29 RL (+12.1% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.6 runs per game. Toronto starter Max Scherzer falls into a profitable 26-11 SU (70.3%; +13.5% ROI) situation that dates to August 1, 2021, and invests on certain starting pitchers coming off a win in their previous outing in which they had five or more strikeouts, winning by an average of +1.6 runs per game.
Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2905-5171 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 4130-3527 RL (-2.8% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 893-1758 SU (33.7%; -8.3% ROI) and 1332-1315 RL (-6.5% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Finally, since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2492-4462 SU (35.8%; -4.5% ROI) and 3553-3035 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 708-1444 SU (32.9%; -10.0% ROI) and 1077-1071 RL (-6.6% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game.
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