Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, July 12! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) (-115)
Starting Pitchers: Nationals: Shinnosuke Ogasawara (0-1, 13.50 ERA, 2.62 WHIP, two strikeouts); Brewers: Brandon Woodruff (1-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.33 WHIP, eight strikeouts)
Report: The fact that the Brewers are large favorites is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2642-995 SU (72.6%; +2.4% ROI) and 1961-1469 RL (57.2%; +3.1% ROI) since 2007, including 1510-521 SU (74.3%; +4.0% ROI) and 1195-837 RL (58.8%; +3.3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Similarly, large MLB favorites in games with totals of greater than eight runs are 2287-892 SU (71.9%; +2.9% ROI) and 1798-1373 RL (56.7%; +3.1% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2536-1018 SU (71.4%; +1.2% ROI) and 1652-1384 RL (+1.5% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 965-358 SU (72.9%; +2.2% ROI) and 734-588 RL (55.5%; +1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. The Brewers are coming off consecutive losses, which is noteworthy in that .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1288-2598 SU (33.1%; -8.1% ROI) and 1716-1564 RL (-2.7% ROI), including 399-830 SU (32.5%; -7.1% ROI) and 620-609 RL (-2.9% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.5 runs per game.
Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2910-5178 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 4137-3532 RL (-2.8% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 898-1765 SU (33.7%; -8.2% ROI) and 1339-1320 RL (-6.5% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Finally, since 2002, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 900-2192 SU (29.1%; -10.4% ROI) and 1254-1455 RL (-6.5% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 323-883 SU (26.8%; -16.0% ROI) and 525-681 RL (-10.4% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.0 runs per game.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-182)
Starting Pitchers: Rays: Shane Baz (8-4, 4.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 104 strikeouts); Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (9-4, 2.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 151 strikeouts)
Report: Boston is coming off eight consecutive wins, which is relevant because divisional home favorites of -131 or greater coming off back-to-back wins are 748-424 SU (63.8%; +1% ROI) and 467-512 RL (+3.3% ROI) in games 45 to 120 of the regular season, winning by an average of +1.2 runs per game. This situation improves to 35-17 SU (67.3%; +3.4% ROI) and 21-21 RL (+8.8% ROI) with teams entering off seven or more consecutive wins, winning by an average margin of +1.6 runs per game. Since 2003, MLB road underdogs of +156 or greater coming off a road game in which they scored fewer than nine runs are 489-1063 SU (31.5%; -9.6% ROI) and 626-682 RL (-8.3% ROI) with starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.81 or worse that are coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, losing by an average of -1.7 runs per game.
Finally, Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last ten games, which is significant in that the Rays fall into a very negative 723-1143 SU (38.7%; -9.3% ROI) and 807-839 RL (-6.9% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2003 and invests against certain teams coming off a loss that have lost 7+ of their last ten games versus .480 or greater opponents. This situation is 303-556 SU (35.3%; -15.4% ROI) and 399-459 RL (-11.0% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.4 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Saturday, July 12
- Since 2004, large MLB underdogs are 355-1134 SU (23.8%; -20.2% ROI) and 556-845 RL (39.7%; -13.0% ROI) with starting pitchers coming off a non-quality start, losing by an average of -2.4 runs per game.
- The Cincinnati Reds are 84-33 SU (71.8%; +13.6% ROI) and 56-61 RL (+3.1% ROI) since 2010, following a game as favorites of -120 or greater in which they had more strikeouts than hits, winning by an average of +1.7 runs per game.
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