Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, May 3! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets UNDER 205.5 points (-110)
Report: Los Angeles forced Game 7 with its 111-105 win over Denver on Thursday, which is noteworthy because NBA home favorites coming off a postseason loss are 231-181-7 to the Under (56.1%), including 58-40 UNDER (59.2%) since 2021. Historically, Game 7s have been lower scoring affairs. Specifically, NBA playoff Game 7s are 43-26 to the Under (62.3%) since 2004, including 14-5 UNDER (73.7%) since 2018, going under by an average of -9.3 points per game. Since 2002, NBA playoff favorites in Game 7s are 36-17 to the Under (67.9%) if the total is less than it was in Game 6, going under by an average margin of -6.6 points per game. This situation is 14-5 to the Under (73.7%) since 2018, covering the total by an average of -9.3 points per game. Since 2004, NBA playoff teams coming off back-to-back games in which they allowed 110 or more points are 104-69-7 to the Under (60.1%), provided they are not underdogs of more than one point.
Since 2002, NBA games between teams that have the lowest total of their last three games in contests with totals of less than 225 points are 1264-942-74 to the Under (57.3%), including 583-417-30 UNDER (58.3%) since 2015, covering the total by an average margin of -2.3 points per game.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (-1.5) (-130)
Report: Colorado finds itself in an unenviable position as MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 879-2140 (29.1%; -10.4% ROI) since 2003 versus .551 or greater opponents, including 302-831 (26.7%; -16.3% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -2.0 runs per game. Colorado right-hander Antonio Senzatela allowed four runs on eight hits over five innings of work in his last outing, which is noteworthy in that large MLB underdogs are 346-1091 SU (24.1%; -19.4% ROI) and 541-808 RL (40.1%; -12.2% ROI) since 2005 with starting pitchers coming off a non-quality start, losing by an average if -2.4 runs per game. San Francisco suffered a 4-3 loss against the Rockies yesterday, but large divisional home favorites coming off a loss are 1277-644 SU (66.5% ROI; +2% ROI) and +3% ROI RL since 2009, including 381-165 SU (69.8%; +4.9% ROI) and 291-255 RL (+8.1% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +1.8 runs per game.
Finally, the Giants led 3-1 after the sixth inning before ultimately falling to Colorado, which is significant in that large MLB favorites coming off a loss are 256-106 SU (70.7%; +2.4% ROI) and 172-139 RL (55.3%; +4.9% ROI) if they led after the sixth inning of that defeat. This situation is 115-29 SU (79.9%; +14.5% ROI) and 88-55 RL (61.5%; +13% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.5 runs per game.
Colorado Avalanche (-135) at Dallas Stars
Report: The Avalanche evened the series at 3-3 following Wednesday’s 7-4 win over Dallas. Since 2003, conference road favorites of less than -250 are 3012-2003 (60.1%; +3.3% ROI). Since 2003, NHL conference road favorites of -180 or less with equal or more rest than their opponent are 1262-845 (59.9%; +5.4% ROI) in games with totals of less than six goals. Since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2514-1699 (59.7%; +3.6% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents. Since 2005, NHL road favorites of -175 or less coming off a win are 551-355 (60.8%; +6.6% ROI) versus opponents averaging fewer shots on goal per game, provided they lost their second-to-last game. This situation is 40-24 (62.5%; +9.2% ROI) in postseason play, winning by an average margin of +0.8 goals per game. Since 2004, NHL home underdogs coming off a loss as road underdogs are 141-240 (37%; -13% ROI) from Game 60 forward versus opponents arriving off a win, including 37-80 (31.6%; -21.8% ROI) since 2020.
Finally, the Avalanche are 19-6 (76%; +28.1% ROI) since 2018, as playoff road favorites, winning by an average of +1.6 goals per game.
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