Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, November 23! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Northwestern (+10) (-110) at Michigan
Report: Since 2000, conference underdogs of three points or greater are 449-319-24 ATS (58.5%) in games with totals of less than 46 points, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.3 points per game. Since 1989, conference road underdogs of at least a touchdown are 487-363-24 ATS (57.3%) in games with totals of 48 points or less. Since 1989, double-digit conference road underdogs in games with totals of 46 points or less are 243-162-16 ATS (60%). Since 2006, college football road underdogs of less than thirteen points with revenge are 345-234-12 ATS (59.6%) from Week 3 forward, covering the spread by an average of +2.2 points per game. Since 1989, conference road underdogs of less than 25 points in games with totals of less than 46 points are 196-129-10 ATS (60.3%) versus opponents entering off an ATS win from Week 7 forward, including 89-50-5 ATS (64%) since 2018.
Since 1989, college football road teams in games with totals of less than 40 points are 190-129-15 ATS (59.6%). Since 2018, college football teams with short rest coming off a game against a top 5 opponent are 164-133-5 ATS (55.2%), including 81-51-1 ATS (61.4%) since 2022, covering the spread by an average of +2.3 points per game. Finally, Northwestern is 38-24 ATS (61.3%) as a road underdog since 2007, exceeding market expectations by an average of +3.2 points per game.
Northwestern at Michigan UNDER 37 points (-110)
Report: Since 2002, college football teams in games with totals seven or more points less than the totals in each of their previous two games are 985-729-35 to the Under (57.5%). Since 2005, college football teams coming off a game in which they scored seven points or less are 252-184-5 to the Under (57.8%) with totals that are seven or more points less than their previous game. Since 1989, conference road underdogs of less than 25 points in games with totals of less than 46 points are 186-141-8 to the Under (56.9%) versus opponents entering off an ATS win from Week 7 forward, including 106-79-4 UNDER (57.3%) since 2013. Since 1989, conference road underdogs of seven or more points are 257-206-10 to the Under (55.5%).
Indiana at Ohio State UNDER 51.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2013, ranked double-digit favorites are 95-68-5 to the Under (58.3%) versus ranked opponents, including 30-17-1 UNDER (63.8%) since 2021. Since 2012, ranked double-digit home favorites are 69-39-2 to the Under (63.9%) versus ranked opponents, including 25-12 UNDER (67.6%) since 2020, covering the total by an average margin of -3.9 points per game. Since 2003, college football teams averaging more than 43 points per game are 107-83-2 to the Under (56.3%) versus opponents averaging less than 38 points per game from Week 13 forward, including 58-33-1 UNDER (63.7%) since 2016, going under by an average of -1.9 points per game. Since 2011, college football teams coming off a conference win in which they gained fewer than 250 total yards are 86-66-3 to the Under (56.6%), including 30-19-2 UNDER (61.2%) since 2021. Since 2014, regular season underdogs ranked in the top 12 are 109-91-6 to the Under (55%), including 83-59-5 UNDER (58.5%) since 2017.
Finally, since 2020, top 12-ranked road teams that had fewer than fifteen first downs in the previous meeting with the opponent are 15-3 to the Under (83.3%), going under by an average of -8.2 points per game.
Tulsa at South Florida (-17.5) (-110)
Report: Since 1989, college football home teams coming off a win by 35 or more points are 789-644-34 ATS (55.1%) versus opponents not arriving off a road win. Since 1991, college football home favorites of less than -35 with regular rest coming off a win by 35 or more points are 131-65-5 ATS (66.8%) versus .659 or worse opponents entering off a game in which 58 or more combined points were scored, covering the spread by an average margin of +4.3 points per game. Since 2016, college football teams with revenge are 379-310-15 ATS (55%) versus opponents allowing 35 or more points per game. Since 1991, conference road underdogs of +13.5 to +31.5 points with seven losses on the season are 98-139-5 ATS (41.4%), failing to cover the spread by an average of -1.9 points per game. Since 2020, college football teams with 1 to 3 wins coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than twelve pass completions are 183-232-7 ATS (44.1%).
Finally, since 2014, college football teams entering off a game in which they allowed 25 or more first downs are 395-498-22 ATS (44.2%) versus opponents that had a negative turnover margin in the previous meeting, including 75-113-4 ATS (39.9%) since 2022, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.2 points per game.
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