Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, November 16! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors valuable information on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Louisville (-20.5) (-110) at Stanford
Report: Since 1989, college football road teams are 771-585-24 ATS (56.9%) versus favorites of four points or less (or underdogs) averaging a negative margin at the half and netting the same metric coming off a game in which 60 or more combined points were scored, including 483-357-14 ATS (57.5%) since 2015, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.5 points per game. Since 2014, ranked college football road favorites of more than six points are 88-64-2 ATS (57.9%) from Week 12 forward, including 79-57-2 ATS (58.1%) versus unranked opponents, including 52-34-1 ATS (60.5%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average of +3.7 points per game. Since 2009, college football home teams that are losing by an average of seven or more points per game are 480-623-19 ATS (43.5%) following a contest in which 60 or more points were scored, including 167-222-5 ATS (42.9%) since 2019. Since 1989, college football teams that perform poorly in the first half of games (average deficit of 6 or more points) are 468-608-18 ATS (43.5%) following a game in which 60 or more combined points were scored, including 140-188-5 ATS (41.8%) since 2019.
College football underdogs of +11 to +27 points with ten or more days of rest are 0-23 SU and 3-20 ATS (13%) since 1989 following a road loss that marked their seventh defeat of the season, losing by an average of -29.0 points per game and falling short of market expectations by an average of -10.2 points per game. Finally, Stanford is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS as a home underdog since 2020.
Florida Atlantic (+2.5) (-110) at Temple
Report: Since 1989, conference road underdogs of less than +24 coming off an ATS loss with totals of 42.5 to 69 points are 218-116-6 ATS (65.3%) versus opponents with less rest, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.7 points per game. Since 1989, conference road underdogs of less than +24 coming off an ATS loss in which they scored 55 points or less are 185-92-5 ATS (66.8%) versus opponents with less rest and the same or better record, covering the spread by an average of +3.9 points per game. Since 1989, conference road favorites of -20 or less coming off an ATS loss are 85-49-2 ATS (63.4%) versus opponents with less rest entering off a road loss in games with totals of 38 to 56 points, including 52-22-1 ATS (70.3%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +5.5 points per game. Since 1989, unranked road underdogs of +11 or less with seven-plus days of rest in games with totals of 44.5 to 69.5 points are 181-100-5 ATS (64.4%) versus unranked opponents not on an extended against-the-spread (ATS) winning streak, including 116-58-3 ATS (66.7%) since 2015, covering the spread by an average of +4.1 points per game.
Since 1999, divisional road teams are 166-118-6 ATS (58.5%) versus opponents entering off a loss by 46 or more points, including 56-29-1 ATS (65.9%) since 2017. Since 1989, conference road favorites of -20 or less coming off an ATS loss are 85-49-2 ATS (63.4%) versus opponents with less rest entering off a road loss in games with totals of 38 to 56 points, including 52-22-1 ATS (70.3%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +5.5 points per game. Since 1996, college football home favorites of -16 or less coming off a game in which they scored fewer than ten points are 253-359-13 ATS (41.3%), including 70-108-8 ATS (39.3%) since 2017, falling short of market expectations by an average of -3.2 points per game. Finally, since 1989, college football teams coming off a game in which they had more than 400 punting yards and fewer than fifteen first downs are 159-207-8 ATS (43.4%).
Tennessee (+9.5) (-110) at Georgia
Report: Since 2018, college football favorites of three points or less (or underdogs) coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 362 total yards are 223-175-8 ATS (56%) versus opponents entering off two or more consecutive ATS losses, including 190-144-5 ATS (56.9%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average of +2.1 points per game. Since 1997, college football road teams that failed to cover the spread in their last five meetings with the current opponent are 62-41 SU (60.2%) and 62-39-2 ATS (61.4%) if one additional parameter is satisfied, covering the spread by an average of +2.7 points per game. Since 2011, college football teams coming off a game in which they scored no more than one touchdown are 346-439-20 ATS (44.1%) versus opponents entering off two or more consecutive wins, including 151-199-5 ATS (43.1%) since 2019. Since 2015, college football teams coming off a game in which they defended 52 or more rushing attempts and allowed fewer than fourteen pass completions are 231-289-21 ATS (44.4%) from Game 4 out, including 56-94-3 ATS (37.3%) since 2021, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.4 points per game.
Since 1995, college football home favorites of -11 or less in Weeks 1-13 with totals of greater than 48 points are 61-91-4 ATS (40.1%) following an upset loss as conference road favorites of less than two touchdowns. Finally, my math model only favors Georgia by -6.7 points and road teams coming off an extended homestand (4+ games) are 40-31 SU and 42-26-3 ATS since 2016.
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