Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, October 26! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Buffalo (+6) (-110) at Ohio
Report: Since 1989, conference underdogs of +6 to +24 points in games with totals of 37 to 46 points are 305-188-13 ATS (61.9%) in Weeks 1-12, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.3 points per game. Since 1989, conference road underdogs of +6 to +21 in games with totals of 40.5 to 47.5 are 298-210-7 ATS (58.7%) in Weeks 4-12 versus opponents that missed the playoffs the previous season. Since 1991, unranked road underdogs averaging 125 or more rushing yards per game with totals of 47 points or less are 442-318-22 ATS (58.2%), covering the spread by an average of +2.2 points per game. Since 1989, .501 or greater conference road underdogs in Weeks 1-15 are 149-97-4 ATS (60.6%) versus .501 or greater opponents coming off a conference loss by twelve points or less. Since 2008, conference road underdogs of +3.5 to +9 points with revenge for a loss as home underdogs are 187-131-6 ATS (58.8%) in non-Thursday games with totals between 42 and 70 points, including 104-68-4 ATS (60.5%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +2.7 points per game.
Since 1989, college football teams coming off a game in which they had 41 or more pass attempts and less than 210 passing yards are 88-115-7 ATS (43.3%) in games with totals of 44 to 69.5 points, failing to cover by an average of -2.9 points per game. Since 2014, college football teams coming off a loss are 303-381-18 ATS (44.3%) versus opponents coming off a game in which they had fifteen or fewer third down attempts, including 132-177-6 ATS (42.7%) since 2020.
BYU at Central Florida UNDER 53.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 1990, single-digit favorites or underdogs coming off a game in which they rushed for more than 315 yards are 294-149-10 to the Under (66.4%) provided they aren’t playing a second consecutive road game. Since 2000, double-digit favorites with six or more days of rest coming off a game in which they had over 300 rushing yards are 705-506-32 to the Under (58.2%) versus teams off a game in which they had more than 45 rushing yards, including 105-72-2 UNDER (59.3%) since 2021, covering the total by an average of -2.4 points per game. This situation improves to 682-492-27 to the Under (58.1%) in non-Friday affairs involving teams that eclipsed 300 rushing yards at home in their previous game, including 130-74-2 UNDER (63.7%) since 2021, going under by an average of -3.2 points per game. Since 1994, unranked conference home teams priced between -6.5 and +7.5 are 293-234-5 to the Under (55.6%) in Weeks 3-14 versus opponents that score more points per game than the league average, including 140-93 UNDER (60.1%) since 2018, going under by an average of -2.5 points per game.
Finally, since 2011, unranked conference home teams priced between -6.5 and +7.5 are 242-175-4 to the Under (58%) in Weeks 3-14 versus opponents scoring and allowing more points per game than the league average, including 81-50 UNDER (61.8%) since 2020, going under by an average of -2.2 points per game.
Illinois at Oregon (-21.5) (-110)
Report: Since 1989, large home favorites that won two or more games the previous season are 178-100-11 ATS (64%) with total of 49 to 75.5 points versus .501 or greater opponents that won fewer than eleven games the previous season, provided they are not on an extended against-the-spread (ATS) losing streak, including 61-27-3 ATS (69.3%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average of +4.6 points per game. Since 1989, large home favorites coming off a game in which they allowed 38 points or less with totals of 49 to 76 points are 194-118-12 ATS (62.2%) versus opponents with a better winning percentage, including 67-29-3 ATS (69.8%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average of +4.6 points per game. Since 1990, ranked home favorites of less than three points in games with totals of greater than 45 points are 186-129-9 ATS (59%) versus ranked opponents, including 72-47-5 ATS (60.5%) since 2017, covering by an average of +3.3 points per game. Since 2007, college football favorites of -21 to -32 points that have won their last seven games are 86-49-2 ATS (63.7%). Since 1989, college football home favorites coming off a double-digit conference win are 113-72-3 ATS (61.1%) versus opponents entering off an upset win as underdogs of five points or more, covering by an average of +2.7 points per game.
Since 1996, ranked home favorites of -3 to -30 are 260-202-14 ATS (56.3%) versus ranked opponents, including 91-59-7 ATS (60.7%) since 2017, covering by an average of +2.9 points per game. Since 1989, college football teams coming off a game in which their opponent had a QBR of less than 71.3 are 88-60-1 ATS (59.5%) versus foes entering off a win in which they didn’t fumble the ball, covering the spread by an average of +2.3 points per game. Since 1989, college football home teams coming off a win by 35 or more points are 784-641-34 ATS (55%) versus opponents not entering off a road win. Since 2010, ranked favorites of 20 or more points are 24-1 SU and 17-7-1 ATS versus ranked opponents. Finally, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning is 22-1 SU and 15-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite, covering the spread by an average of +4.0 points per game.
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