Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, October 19! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Notre Dame at Georgia Tech UNDER 51 points (-110)
Report: Since 1990, single-digit favorites or underdogs coming off a game in which they rushed for more than 315 yards are 291-149-10 to the Under (66.1%), provided they aren’t playing a second consecutive road game. Since 2000, double-digit favorites with six or more days of rest coming off a game in which they had over 300 rushing yards are 701-505-32 to the Under (58.1%) versus teams off a game in which they had more than 45 rushing yards, including 101-71-2 UNDER (58.7%) since 2021, covering the total by an average of -2.3 points per game. This situation improves to 677-491-27 to the Under (58%) in non-Friday affairs involving teams that eclipsed 300 rushing yards at home in their previous game, including 125-73-2 UNDER (63.1%) since 2021, going under by an average of -3.1 points per game.
Finally, since 1989, college football games between teams that have committed very few turnovers recently are 154-109-5 to the Under (58.6%), provided at least one team is on a five-game winning streak, including 123-78-3 UNDER (61.2%) since 2015.
UNLV at Oregon State UNDER 60 points (-110)
Report: Since 2000, double-digit favorites with six or more days of rest coming off a game in which they had over 300 rushing yards are 701-505-32 to the Under (58.1%) versus teams off a game in which they had more than 45 rushing yards, including 101-71-2 UNDER (58.7%) since 2021, covering the total by an average of -2.3 points per game. This situation improves to 677-491-27 to the Under (58%) in non-Friday affairs involving teams that eclipsed 300 rushing yards at home in their previous game, including 125-73-2 UNDER (63.1%) since 2021, going under by an average of -3.1 points per game. Since 1989, college football games between .501 or greater teams that went over the total by 30 or more points in their previous matchup are 203-147-3 to the Under (58%), including 80-53 UNDER (60.2%) since 2018, going under by an average of -3.4 points per game. Since 1996, college football teams coming off a game in which they gave up 38 or more pass completions are 199-150-5 to the Under (57%).
Since 2021, college football games with totals of greater than 60 points are 347-274-5 to the Under (55.9%), including 111-78 UNDER (58.7%) since 2023. Finally, since 1989, college football favorites of four or more points in Weeks 1-8 are 116-93-2 to the Under (55.5%) in late-evening games.
Arkansas State at Southern Mississippi (+7) (-110)
Report: Since 2020, college football underdogs are 477-353-13 ATS (57.5%) versus opponents coming off a game where they attempted sixteen or more third downs, provided they do not have same-season revenge. This situation is 282-188-7 ATS (60%) since 2022, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.9 points per game. Since 1990, conference home underdogs of three or more points with revenge are 96-60-3 ATS (61.5%) in games with totals of greater than 50 points during Weeks 1-9 of the regular season. Since 2014, college football teams entering off a game in which they allowed 25 or more first downs are 381-488-22 ATS (43.8%) versus opponents that had a negative turnover margin in the previous meeting, including 92-147-7 ATS (38.5%) since 2021, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.2 points per game. Since 2020, college football teams with 1-3 wins on the season are 165-221-7 ATS (42.7%) following a game in which they allowed fewer than twelve pass completions, including 66-94-5 ATS (41.2%) since 2023, falling short of market expectations by an average of -3.4 points per game.
Finally, Arkansas State falls into a very negative 560-715-23 ATS (43.9%) system of mine that dates to 2015 and invests against certain college football teams facing opponents with revenge for a game that went over the total by more than three points. This situation is 197-302-6 ATS (39.5%) since 2021, failing to cover the spread by an average of -2.6 points per game.
Florida Atlantic (+3.5) (-110) at UTSA
Report: Since 2007, college football road underdogs of less than seven points with three wins or fewer on the season are 782-620-28 ATS (55.8%), including 420-311-12 ATS (57.5%) since 2017. Since 2020, college football underdogs are 476-353-13 ATS (57.4%) versus opponents coming off a game in which they attempted sixteen or more third downs, provided they do not have same-season revenge. This situation is 159-109-3 ATS (59.3%) since 2023, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.1 points per game. Since 2008, conference road underdogs of +3.5 to +9 points with revenge for a loss as home underdogs are 186-130-6 ATS (58.9%) in non-Thursday games with totals between 42 and 70 points, including 103-67-4 ATS (60.6%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +2.6 points per game. Since 2014, college football teams coming off a loss are 300-380-18 ATS (44.1%) versus opponents entering off a game in which they had fifteen or fewer third down attempts, including 79-109-4 ATS (42%) since 2022.
Since 2012, college football teams coming off an against-the-spread (ATS) loss by three or more points in which their opponent committed ten or more penalties are 188-237-15 ATS (44.2%) versus opponents entering off a home game, including 52-76-4 ATS (40.6%) since 2021. Finally, since 1995, college football home favorites of -11 or less in games with totals of 48.5 or more points are 59-88-4 ATS (40.1%) in Weeks 1-13 coming off an upset loss as conference road favorites of less than fourteen points.
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