Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, October 11! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Miami Ohio (-11) (-110) at Akron
Report: Since 1994, college football road favorites of -6.5 to -19 that won three or more games the previous season and are coming off a game as favorites of -41 points or less are 191-125-3 ATS (60.4%) versus opponents entering off an against-the-spread (ATS) home win that won fewer than eleven games the previous season, including 71-39-1 ATS (64.5%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +4.7 points per game. Since 2009, double-digit road favorites with 6-9 days of rest are 654-517-14 ATS (55.8%) versus opponents with 6-9 days of rest. Akron is coming off a rare 28-22 win over Central Michigan, which is significant in that double-digit conference home underdogs coming off a conference win are 94-133-4 ATS (41.4%), including 40-62-1 ATS (39.2%) since 2019.
Finally, Akron is 17-30-1 ATS (36.2%) at home since 2016 and 7-22 ATS (24.1%) as a home underdog in Games 1-10 of the regular season since 2014, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -7.5 points per game.
Florida (+7.5) (-110) at Texas A&M
Report: Since 1989, conference road underdogs in games with below-average totals are 612-457-29 ATS (57.2%), including 182-101-11 ATS (64.3%) as road underdogs of seven or more points in Weeks 1-7 of the regular season, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.2 points per game. Since 1990, unranked college football teams priced between -4 and +13 are 187-115-6 ATS (61.9%) in games with certain totals versus ranked opponents. Since 1989, unranked conference road underdogs of +6 to +16 are 266-157-6 ATS (62.9%) in games with certain totals versus opponents that won at least one game the previous season, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.9 points per game.
Since 1990, 5-0 college football favorites allowing 15.0 or more points per game on the season are 74-98-8 ATS (43%), including 20-32-1 ATS (38.5%) since 2018. Finally, Florida is 7-0-1 ATS as a conference underdog following an outright win as an underdog, while SEC underdogs coming off a SU and ATS win are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season.
New Mexico (+16.5) (-110) at Boise State
Report: Since 1989, conference road underdogs of +24 or less coming off an against-the-spread (ATS) loss are 184-90-5 ATS (67.2%) in Week 2 forward versus opponents with the same or better win percentage, provided one additional parameter is satisfied. This situation has covered the spread by an average margin of +3.7 points per game. Boise State returns home off a 28-7 loss to Notre Dame, which is significant in that large college football favorites coming off a loss of fourteen or more points are 75-99-4 ATS (43.1%), failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -2.3 points per game. New Mexico arrives off a 35-28 loss to San Jose State in which the Lobos had three turnovers, but college football teams coming off a game in which they committed three or more turnovers are 205-134-3 ATS (60.5%) in their next game.
Finally, since 2000, college football teams off a loss and playing with revenge are 153-103-1 ATS (59.8%) in evening affairs, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.4 points per game.
North Carolina State (+23.5) (-110) at Notre Dame
Report: North Carolina State arrives off a 56-10 win over Campbell, which is relevant in that, since 1989, large college football underdogs coming off a win by 35 or more points are 114-75-2 ATS (60.3%), covering the spread by an average of +3.1 points per game. Since 2009, non-conference road underdogs of seventeen or more points coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by 250 or more yards are 43-21-1 ATS (67.2%), covering the spread by an average margin of +3.7 points per game. Since 2012, college football teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed extremely well, going 101-70 ATS (59.1%).
Finally, Notre Dame applies to a very negative 358-467-14 ATS (43.4%) point spread margin system of mine that dates to 2014 and is 156-248-3 ATS (38.6%) since 2020, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -3.2 points per game.
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