Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Friday, July 4! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies (-170)
Report: Cincinnati southpaw Andrew Abbott toes the rubber with a 1.79 ERA, whereas Philadelphia lefty Jesus Luzardo takes the mound with a 4.06 ERA. The disparity in ERAs between the opposing starters is relevant because non-divisional home favorites of -160 or less coming off a win are 598-378 SU (61.3%; +8.9% ROI) and 360-480 RL (+7.1% ROI) since 2006, in Games 11 to 145 with starting pitchers with a much worse ERA. Since 2012, afternoon home favorites of -101 or greater in the first game of a series coming off a game that went under the total are 214-121 SU (63.9%; +6.4% ROI), including 105-52 SU (66.9%; +9.0% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +1.4 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2903-5171 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 4128-3527 RL (-2.8% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 891-1758 SU (33.6%; -8.4% ROI) and 1330-1315 RL (-6.6% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game.
Finally, since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2491-4462 SU (35.8%; -4.5% ROI) and 3552-3035 RL (-2.8% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 707-1444 SU (32.9%; -10.0% ROI) and 1076-1071 RL (-6.6% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game.
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-155)
Report: Chicago rookie Matt Shaw’s sacrifice fly to center field scored Nico Hoerner from third in the 10th inning, giving the Cubs a 1-0 win over the Guardians on Thursday night. That win is noteworthy in that MLB home favorites of -145 or greater coming off a game in which they scored one or fewer runs are 570-279 SU (67.1%; +4.8% ROI) and 367-367 RL (+8.6% ROI) in the first game of a series, including 202-92 SU (68.7%; +5.3% ROI) and 156-136 RL (+11.0% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.7 runs per game. The Cubs are 223-153 SU (59.3%; +6.8% ROI) at home in Game 1 of a series and 20-5 SU (80%; +32.5% ROI) since June 7, 2018, in home affairs following a walk-off win as favorites, winning by an average margin of +1.6 runs per game. Chicago is coming off three consecutive wins, which is relevant because divisional home favorites of -131 or greater coming off back-to-back wins are 746-423 SU (63.8%; +1% ROI) and 466-510 RL (+3.4% ROI) in games 45 to 120 of the regular season, winning by an average of +1.2 runs per game.
Finally, since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2903-5171 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 4128-3527 RL (-2.8% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 891-1758 SU (33.6%; -8.4% ROI) and 1330-1315 RL (-6.6% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends & Angles
- Since 2009, MLB road underdogs entering off two or more consecutive wins are 1834-2701 SU (40.4%; -4.3% ROI) and 2665-1859 RL (-2.1% ROI).
- Since 2003, large MLB home favorites with immediate revenge are 826-331 SU (71.4%; +5.6% ROI) and 533-461 RL (+6.6% ROI) since 2003, in early afternoon games, including 359-137 SU (72.4%; +6.9% ROI) and 275-220 RL (55.6%; +8.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.8 runs per game.
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