Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Friday, July 11! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers (-205)
Starting Pitchers: Nationals: Mitchell Parker (5-9, 4.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 66 strikeouts); Brewers: Quinn Priester (6-2, 3.59 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 65 strikeouts)
Report: Since 2009, large MLB favorites in games with totals of greater than eight runs are 2286-891 SU (72%; +2.9% ROI) and 1797-1372 RL (56.7%; +3.1% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1488-624 SU (70.5%; +1.2% ROI) and 1074-861 RL (55.5%; +3.4% ROI), including 786-309 SU (71.8%; +2.4% ROI) and 628-465 RL (57.5%; +4.3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB home favorites of -156 to -210 with revenge are 881-461 SU (65.6%; +2.4% ROI) and 582-622 RL (+5.0% ROI) in Game 1 of a series, winning by an average margin of +1.4 runs per game. The Brewers arrive home off a 3-2 win over the Dodgers in which they used seven pitchers which is significant in that MLB favorites coming off a win in which they used seven or more pitchers are 661-397 SU (62.5%; +4.2% ROI) and 489-534 RL (+5.4% ROI) since 2006, winning by an average margin of +1.1 runs per game.
Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2909-5176 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 4136-3530 RL (-2.8% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 897-1763 SU (33.7%; -8.2% ROI) and 1338-1318 RL (-6.4% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Finally, since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2495-4467 SU (35.8%; -4.5% ROI) and 3558-3038 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 711-1449 SU (32.9%; -9.9% ROI) and 10782-1074 RL (-6.5% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game.
Philadelphia Phillies (-160) at San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Phillies: Ranger Suarez (7-2, 1.99 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 73 strikeouts); Padres: Ryan Bergert (0-0)
Report: Since 2016, MLB road favorites are 1524-1064 SU (58.9%; +1% ROI) in the first game of a series, winning by an average margin of +1.2 runs per game. The Phillies did not play yesterday, which is significant because non-division road favorites with one day of rest are 555-352 SU (61.2%; +5.6% ROI) and 441-460 RL (+5.3% ROI) in the opening game of a series since 2007, including 275-156 SU (63.8%; +8.3% ROI) and 225-205 RL (+9.8% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +1.6 runs per game. Since 2005, non-divisional road favorites with rest are 642-412 SU (60.9%; +5.3% ROI) and 471-481 RL (+6.7% ROI) unrested opponents in Game 1 of a series, including 290-158 SU (64.7%; +9.5% ROI) and 237-210 RL (+10.8% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.7 runs per game.
San Diego right-hander Ryan Bergert is coming off an outing in which he allowed three runs over five innings of work, which is noteworthy in that non-division road favorites with one day of rest are 384-234 SU (62.1%; +7.8% ROI) and 315-298 RL (+11.8% ROI) versus opposing starters who allowed three or more runs in their previous outing, including 212-115 SU (64.8%; +10.3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +1.7 runs per game. Finally, the Padres are 50-94 SU (34.7%; -25% ROI) and 68-75 RL (-17.9% ROI) since 2018, as home underdogs, losing by an average of -1.6 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Friday, July 11
- Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2535-1016 SU (71.4%; +1.2% ROI) and 1651-1382 RL (+1.5% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 964-356 SU (73%; +2.3% ROI) and 733-585 RL (55.5%; +1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game.
- MLB favorites of -196 or greater with starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.08 or better with revenge are 634-240 SU (72.5%; +4.0% ROI) and 457-354 RL (56.4%; +4.4% ROI), including 334-114 SU (74.6%; +6.2% ROI) and 255-192 RL (57%; +3.0% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.2 runs per game.
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