Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Friday, May 16! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays (-110)
Report: Detroit arrives in Toronto looking to extend a four-game road winning streak, which is significant in that non-divisional road favorites with one day of rest are 545-342 (61.4%; +5.9% ROI) in the opening game of a series, including 265-146 (64.5%; +9.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +1.7 runs per game. Detroit is riding a three-game winning streak, and rested MLB road favorites coming off back-to-back wins as home favorites are 177-105 (62.8%; +7.6% ROI) since 2005, including 99-42 (70.2%; +18.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. These teams are 111-62 (64.2%; +10.6% ROI) in non-divisional affairs, including 66-22 (75%; +26.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.3 runs per game. Since 2005, non-divisional road favorites with rest are 631-403 (61%; +5.4% ROI) versus unrested opponents in Game 1 of a series, including 279-149 (65.2%; +10% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.7 runs per game.
Toronto enters off an 8-3 upset loss to the Rays, which is worth mentioning because MLB favorites are 717-469 (60.5%; +5.8% ROI) versus opponents coming off an upset loss as favorites of -150 or greater, including 267-164 (61.9%; +7.7% ROI) since 2018. Finally, since 2010, American League road favorites of -120 to -220 are 1418-949 SU (59.9%; +1.3% ROI) versus non-division opponents, including 653-423 SU (60.7%; +1.7% ROI) and 521-553 RL (+1.6% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.4 runs per game.
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (-220)
Report: The Cubs enter off a 3-1 loss to the Marlins, which is noteworthy in that MLB home favorites of -145 or greater coming off a game in which they scored one or fewer runs are 564-270 SU (67.6%; +5.6% ROI) and 361-358 RL (+9.0% ROI) in the first game of a series, including 196-83 SU (70.3%; +7.5% ROI) and 150-127 RL (+12.3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.8 runs per game. That situation fits nicely with the fact that the White Sox are 22-64 SU (25.6%; -43.1% ROI) and 34-52 RL (-23.4% ROI) on the road in the opening game of a series, including 4-29 SU (12.1%; -67% ROI) and 11-22 RL (-35.5% ROI) since 2024, losing by an average of -3.3 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1454-615 SU (70.3%; +1.0% ROI) and 1046-846 RL (55.3%; +3.1% ROI), including 752-300 SU (71.5%; +2.0% ROI) and 600-450 RL (57.1%; +3.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game.
The fact that Chicago is a large favorite is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2578-977 SU (72.5%; +2.3% ROI) and 1909-1439 RL (57%; +2.9% ROI) since 2007, including 1446-503 SU (74.2%; +3.9% ROI) and 1143-807 RL (58.6%; +3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2482-995 SU (71.4%; +1.3% ROI) and 1612-1347 RL (+1.7% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 911-335 SU (73.1%; +2.4% ROI) and 694-551 RL (55.7%; +1.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game.
Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2860-5096 SU (35.9%; -4.4% ROI) and 4062-3475 RL (-2.9% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 848-1683 SU (33.5%; -8.7% ROI) and 1264-1263 RL (-7.1% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Finally, since 2002, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 883-2155 SU (29.1%; -10.6% ROI) and 1230-1425 RL (-6.4% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 306-846 SU (26.6%; -16.6% ROI) and 501-651 RL (43.5%; -10.5% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.1 runs per game.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies (-225)
Report: Philadelphia enters off a 14-7 loss to the Cardinals, which is significant in that MLB home favorites of greater than -130 with one day of rest are 245-113 SU (68.4%; +8.7% ROI) and 155-147 RL (+9.5% ROI) following a game in which they allowed six or more runs, winning by an average margin of +1.6 runs per game. The fact that Philadelphia is a large favorite is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2578-977 SU (72.5%; +2.3% ROI) and 1909-1439 RL (57%; +2.9% ROI) since 2007, including 1446-503 SU (74.2%; +3.9% ROI) and 1143-807 RL (58.6%; +3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2482-995 SU (71.4%; +1.3% ROI) and 1612-1347 RL (+1.7% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 911-335 SU (73.1%; +2.4% ROI) and 694-551 RL (55.7%; +1.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game.
Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1454-615 SU (70.3%; +1.0% ROI) and 1046-846 RL (55.3%; +3.1% ROI), including 752-300 SU (71.5%; +2.0% ROI) and 600-450 RL (57.1%; +3.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2860-5096 SU (35.9%; -4.4% ROI) and 4062-3475 RL (-2.9% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 848-1683 SU (33.5%; -8.7% ROI) and 1264-1263 RL (-7.1% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game.
Finally, since 2002, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 883-2155 SU (29.1%; -10.6% ROI) and 1230-1425 RL (-6.4% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 306-846 SU (26.6%; -16.6% ROI) and 501-651 RL (43.5%; -10.5% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.1 runs per game.
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