Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Monday, April 28! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Monday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) (-135)
Report: Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2553-968 SU (72.5%; +2.3% ROI) and 1890-1424 RL (57%; +3.0% ROI), including 1421-494 SU (74.2%; +3.9% ROI) and 1124-792 RL (58.7%; +3.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1443-610 SU (70.3%; +1.0% ROI) and 1038-838 RL (55.3%; +3.2% ROI), including 741-295 SU (71.5%; +2.1% ROI) and 592-442 RL (57.3%; +3.9% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2004, MLB home favorites of -154 or greater with starting pitchers coming off a loss in which they allowed eight or more runs are 624-329 SU (65.5%; +1% ROI) and 468-483 RL (+2.5% ROI), winning by an average of +1.6 runs per game.
Since 2005, MLB underdogs of greater than +200 with starting pitchers coming off a non-quality start are 344-1088 SU (24%; -19.6% ROI) and 538-806 RL (40%; -12.3% ROI), losing by an average of -2.4 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2844-5071 SU (35.9%; -4.4% ROI) and 4036-3460 RL (-3.0% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 832-1658 SU (33.4%; -8.9% ROI) and 1238-1248 RL (-7.5% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game.
Since 2000, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 878-2136 SU (29.1%; -10.3% ROI) and 1218-1413 RL (-6.5% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 301-827 SU (26.7%; -16.2% ROI) and 489-639 RL (43.4%; -10.8% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.0 runs per game. Finally, since 2003, .490 or worse underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1267-2553 SU (33.2%; -8.1% ROI) and 1683-1531 RL (-2.7% ROI), losing by an average of -1.5 runs per game.
Colorado Avalanche (-135) at Dallas Stars
Report: Since 2003, conference road favorites of less than -250 are 3010-2002 (60.1%; +3.3% ROI). Since 2003, NHL playoff road favorites are 234-151 (60.8%; +6.0% ROI). Since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2512-1698 (59.7%; +3.6% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents. Since 2005, NHL road favorites of -175 or less coming off a win are 550-354 (60.8%; +6.7% ROI) if they are averaging more shots on goal than their opponents. Since 2010, NHL road favorites of -210 or less coming off back-to-back unders are 398-248 (61.6%; +6.4% ROI) if they won their last game. Since 2003, NHL conference road favorites of -170 or less coming off one win exact are 307-181 (62.9%; +11.2% ROI) versus opponents entering off one loss exact. Since 2004, NHL road favorites of -210 or less coming off a win that went under the total are 120-52 (69.8%; +19.2% ROI) versus opponents entering off a road game that went under the total, provided they average fewer penalties per game. This situation is 53-18 (74.6%; +26.7% ROI) since 2016, winning by an average of +1.0 goals per game.
Finally, since 2004, NHL home underdogs coming off a road loss as underdogs from Game 60 out are 140-239 (36.9%; -13.2% ROI) versus opponents entering off a win, including 36-79 (31.3%; -22.4% ROI) since 2020.
New York Mets (-155) at Washington Nationals
Report: Since 2006, .580 or greater favorites of -125 or greater coming off an upset loss as favorites of -125 or more are 1065-554 SU (65.8%; +3.2% ROI) and 739-784 RL (+1% ROI) versus the same opponent, including 440-210 SU (67.7%; +5% ROI) and 333-317 RL (+3% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.6 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -140 to -190 in the first two months of the season are 735-452 SU (61.9%; +2% ROI) versus league opponents, including 345-192 SU (64.2%; +5.1% ROI) and 283-253 RL (+6.5% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.7 runs per game. Since 2008, MLB road favorites of greater than -135 with totals of ten runs or less are 989-563 SU (63.7%; +3.1% ROI) and 789-761 RL (+2% ROI) with starting pitchers who lost their previous matchup start, winning by an average of +1.5 runs per game.
Finally, since 2007, .601 or greater favorites of -140 or greater coming off an upset loss as favorites are 442-224 SU (66.4%; +3.8% ROI) in game 2 (or beyond) of a series, including 210-90 SU (70%; +9.5% ROI) and 153-147 RL (+2.6% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.7 runs per game.
Bonus NBA Betting Trends for Monday, April 28
- Since 2001, NBA games between teams that have the lowest total of their last three games in contests with totals of less than 225 points are 1263-937-74 (57.4%), including 582-412-30 (58.6%) since 2015, covering the total by an average margin of -2.4 points per game
- Since 2004, NBA playoff teams coming off a loss by less than seven points in the Eastern time zone are 584-443-27 to the Under (56.9%), including 188-130-4 UNDER (59.1%) since 2018, going under by an average margin of -2.1 points per game
- Since 1996, NBA playoff teams averaging 103 or more points per game coming off a contest in which they trailed by fifteen or more points at the half are 108-77-4 to the Under (58.4%), including 51-30 UNDER (63%) since 2020, going under by an average of -5.7 points per game
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