Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Friday, October 18! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Oregon (-28.5) (-110) at Purdue
Report: Since 1991, college football road teams are 755-578-24 ATS (56.6%) versus favorites of -4 or less (or underdogs) averaging a negative margin at the half and netting the same metric following a game in which 60 or more combined points were scored, including 427-314-13 ATS (57.6%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.5 points per game. Since 1989, college football road teams are 732-579-19 ATS (55.8%) versus opponents allowing 35 or more points per game on the season entering off a game that went over the total, including 381-283-10 ATS (57.4%) since 2017. Since 1990, conference road favorites of less than -32 averaging more than 125 rushing yards per game and allowing less than 241 passing yards per game are 191-113-4 ATS (62.8%) versus opponents allowing more than 187 rushing yards per game, provided the total is less than 64 points. These large road favorites are 46-21-1 ATS (68.3%) since 2019, covering by an average of +6.3 points per game. Since 2009, undefeated college football favorites of -20 to -32 points that have won their last four games are 146-109-7 ATS (57.3%). Since 1989, college football favorites of -23.5 to -31.5 coming off a game in which they averaged greater than 7.0 yards per play are 202-134-13 ATS (60.1%), covering by an average of +2.6 points per game. Since 2018, college football teams playing on short rest coming off a game against a top 5 opponent are 156-124-5 ATS (55.7%), including 73-42-1 ATS (63.5%) since 2022, covering by an average of +2.9 points per game.
Since 1989, college football teams coming off a game in which they allowed four or more touchdowns are 519-678-26 ATS (43.4%) versus opponents they were favored by less than four points in the previous meeting, including 152-244-8 ATS (38.4%) since 2019, failing to cover the spread by an average of -3.0 points per game. Since 2009, college football home teams losing by an average of seven or more points per game are 475-615-19 ATS (43.6%) following a game in which 60 or more combined points were scored, including 51-74-2 ATS (40.8%) since 2022. Finally, Purdue is just 49-78-1 ATS (38.6%) at home since 2005, making the Boilermakers the least profitable home team in the nation over that span.
Oklahoma State (+9.5) (-110) at BYU
Report: Since 1989, conference road underdogs of less than 24 points coming off an against-the-spread (ATS) loss in games with totals of 42.5 to 69 points are 210-112-6 ATS (65.2%) versus opponents with less rest, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.7 points per game. Since 1989, conference road underdogs of less than 24 points coming off an ATS loss in which they scored 55 points or less are 179-88-5 ATS (67%) in games with totals of 42.5 to 69 points versus opponents with less rest but have the same or better record, covering the spread by an average of +4.0 points per game. Since 1989, conference road teams with more rest coming off an ATS loss are 290-207-10 ATS (58.4%) versus opponents with a better winning percentage, including 105-67-4 ATS (61%) since 2016. Since 1996, single-digit underdogs coming off three consecutive losses are 83-48-2 ATS (63.4%) versus opponents entering off three or more consecutive wins, covering by an average of +2.3 points per game. Since 2020, college football teams are 222-321-10 ATS (40.9%) versus opponents with at least one win coming off a game that went under the total in which they attempted twelve or fewer third downs, including 79-122-4 ATS (39.3%) since 2023, failing to cover by an average of -2.8 points per game.
Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy is 50-22 SU (69.4%) and 44-25-3 ATS (63.8%) in October affairs in his career, covering by an average of +2.7 points per game. Finally, since 1996, Friday Night Football underdogs coming off a game that went under the total and have lost two or more consecutive games are 13-1 ATS (92.9%) versus ranked opponents, covering by an average of +7.4 points per game.
Carolina Hurricanes (-140) at Pittsburgh Penguins
Report: Since 2003, NHL road favorites with fewer than three days of rest are 2069-1318 (61.1%; +3.4% ROI) with a road game on deck, including 518-306 (62.9%; +1.6% ROI) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +0.72 goals per game. Since 2000, NHL favorites coming off a win as home favorites in which they allowed fewer than three goals are 1404-810 (63.4%; +2.7% ROI), including 282-152 (65%; +1% ROI) since 2020. Since 2005, NHL road favorites of -140 or greater are 713-354 SU (66.8%; +5% ROI) versus opponents entering off a win, including 410-191 SU (68.2%; +5.4% ROI) since 2017. Since 2003, NHL road favorites with two days of rest are 726-393 (64.9%; +9.6% ROI) versus opponents with two or fewer days of rest, including 209-109 (65.7%; +5.9% ROI) since 2020. Since 2005, NHL road favorites coming off a win with a game the next day are 596-395 (60.1%; +4% ROI), including 179-93 (65.8%; +8.6% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +0.8 goals per game. These teams improve to 322-195 (62.3%; +7.5% ROI) if they are favored by less than -200, including 94-42 (69.1%; +18.6% ROI) since 2021.
Since 2003, NHL conference road favorites of less than -250 are 2854-1864 (60.5%; +4.2% ROI). Since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2320-1546 (60%; +4.6% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents. Finally, since 2003, NHL home underdogs are 192-318 (37.6%; -16.5% ROI) versus opponents with revenge coming off a game against .499 or worse opposition, including 49-116 (29.7%; -32.9% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.2 goals per game.
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