Oskeim’s AFC Championship Betting Preview & Free Picks

Jan 28, 2024

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ AFC Championship game betting preview and free picks report for Sunday, January 28! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Sunday’s AFC title game. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Kansas City Chiefs (+4) (-105) at Baltimore Ravens

Report: Since 2000, NFL teams with twelve or more wins are 55-27-1 ATS (67.1%) versus opponents with a better win percentage in the playoffs, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.24 points per game. Since 1992, conference road teams coming off a road game in which they scored 24 or more points are 138-84-2 ATS (62.2%) if they allowed 24 or more points in the game before last week’s affair. Since 2015, NFL underdogs coming off a win that did not allow a sack or throw an interception are 30-23 ATS (56.6%), including 21-12 ATS (63.6%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season.

Since 2017, AFC underdogs of seven points or fewer are 267-223-13 ATS (55%) versus conference foes. Kansas City is 18-2 SU and 19-1 ATS (95%) since 2011 as a favorite of three points or less (or as underdogs) following back-to-back wins in which they did not throw an interception, covering the spread by an average of +10.1 points per game. Since 2001, Baltimore is 30-54 ATS (35.7%) as a favorite following a game in which they allowed ten points or less and fewer than 120 rushing yards, including 0-19 ATS since 2017. The Ravens have failed to cover the spread by an average of -9.3 points per game in that span.

Kansas City is 15-5-1 ATS as an underdog since 2016, the third-best record in the league over that span.  Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 9-2 SU and 11-0 ATS as a road or neutral field underdog in his career (8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog overall).  This marks the sixth time Mahomes has opened as an underdog of +3 or greater in his career, and he is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the previous five contests.  Mahomes is 12-2 straight-up in the second of back-to-back road games, including 3-0 as an underdog.  Since 2003, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks are 59-24-2 ATS (71%) as underdogs in postseason play, including 12-4 ATS (75%) after winning the ring since 2018.

Mahomes has won thirteen playoff games since 2018, going 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS in those contests.  Mahomes is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS versus opponents allowing fewer than 20.0 points per game in January and February affairs.  Mahomes is 16-6-1 ATS (72.7%) as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal in his career.

Additional Mahomes Betting Trends

  • 53-12 straight-up from November forward
  • 42-12 SU and 31-21-2 ATS on the road or on a neutral field
  • 38-42-2 ATS as a favorite of -3.5 or greater

Since 2003, double-digit favorites in the Division Round or Championship round are just 3-6 ATS in their next game.  Since 2003, .750 or greater playoff teams are 58-86-1 ATS (40.3%) versus teams with a worse win percentage.  Since 2015, NFL playoff teams coming off a win in which they covered the spread by fourteen-plus points are 13-23 SU and 14-22 ATS.  Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is just 15-19 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons, including 7-16 ATS when favored by more than three points.  Jackson is 2-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs and 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS following a win by 20 or more points.

NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends

Defense matters at this stage of the postseason as teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are 17-10 ATS (63%) in conference championship games since 2010. Teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed are 27-15 ATS (64.3%) in this round, while teams with a better pass efficiency defense are 28-14 ATS (66.7%), including 11-2-1 ATS in the last fourteen. Teams that allowed less yardage overall are 26-16 ATS (61.9%) in conference title games since 2003, while those that allowed fewer yards per play are 27-15 ATS (64.3%).

Conference Championship road teams that won 12 or more games in the regular season are 3-14 SU and 6-11 ATS (35.3%), while home teams are 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) conference title games between teams separated by no more than one regular-season win.  Conference Championship favorites of greater than a field goal are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS after losing their regular-season finale. The outright winner in Conference Championship playoff games is 38-6 ATS (86.4%).

Conference Championship home teams are 16-4 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%), while No. 1 seeds are 21-6 SU and 16-11 ATS (59.3%). Conference Championship teams coming off an ATS loss are 18-11-1 ATS (62.1%) since 1980, while home teams in the NFC title game are 24-10 SU and 19-14-1 ATS (57.6%).

Oskeim Sports gives free NFL Picks and NFL Predictions throughout the 2023-24 NFL season. Oskeim Sports has been an industry-leading sports handicapping service since 2007. Its lead handicapper, Jeff Keim, has received 73 awards in football, basketball, baseball and hockey, including 15 handicapping championships and 53 Top 5 finishes. Visit daily for free NFL odds, totals and free picks.

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