I am now a documented 24-6 (80%) on my ultra-rare 6* selections after today’s blowout winner on Iowa! My proprietary research and analysis is unparalleled, and every selection is independently verified by The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma. My sports investment firm’s industry-leading transparency is further substantiated by the contemporaneous record-keeping available on the website.
Iowa (pk) (-110) over Minnesota
Analysis: Iowa’s 16-9 record this season is grossly misleading in that five of the Hawkeyes’ losses have come by four points or less, including three defeats by three points or less (two in overtime). Iowa’s improvement on the basketball court has resulted in an average attendance of 13,235 this season, which is its best attendance figure since the 2002-2003 season. More importantly, the increased support from the community-at-large has resulted in the Hawkeyes garnering an impressive 12-2 SU and 7-2 ATS record at Carver-Hawkeye Arena this season. Overall, Iowa has won 98 of its 136 games (.721) in Carver-Hawkeye Arena over the last nine seasons, including win streaks of 21 straight and 12 consecutive Big Ten Conference wins. Since February 1, 2012, Iowa has won 17 of its last 20 home games, including ten wins over ranked opponents. I also like the fact that Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery has assembled one of the most experienced coaching staffs in the country as assistant coaches Kirk Speraw, Sherman Dillard and Andrew Francis have over six decades of combined coaching experience. In addition, the entire coaching staff combines for over 48 years of head coaching experience.
Iowa’s success this season has been based, in part, on a renewed commitment to defense. Iowa is allowing a mere 64.2 points per game to teams that combine to average 67.0 points per game, including limiting opponents to 39.0% shooting from the field and 29.2% from beyond the arc. Last year, the Hawkeyes yielded 72.5 points per game on 46.0% shooting from the field so Iowa’s renewed focus on defense has paid immediate dividends this season. Let’s also note that Iowa is limiting foes to a mere 58.4 points per game at home, including 35.9% shooting from the field and 28.6% from three-point territory, which is certainly good enough to limit a pedestrian Minnesota attack that is averaging just 61.4 points per game on the road this season. On a national scale, Iowa ranks 14th in three-point field goal defense (.292) and 34th in field goal percentage defense (.390). I also like the fact that Minnesota is a money-burning 3-4 in true road games, including 1-4 in conference play. After winning at Illinois on January 9, the Golden Gophers have lost their last four road games, including an inexplicable 55-48 defeat at Northwestern as 8-point favorites. I should also note that Iowa holds a 53-40 advantage in this series in games played in Iowa City, including an 18-9 edge at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The Hawkeyes have also won eight of the last twelve meetings in Iowa City, including five of the last eight contests.
In what should be a fairly competitive game, Iowa investors can take comfort in the fact that the Hawkeyes rank fifth in the country in free throws made (17.5) and tenth in attempts (24.6). Interestingly, Iowa has made (438) more free throws than its opponents have attempted (432), which is a characteristic of Fran McCaffery-coached teams. Overall, Iowa is shooting 71.3% from the foul line, including 72.8% at home and 75.4% over its last five games, whereas the Golden Gophers are making just 69.0% of their free throws (66.0% in conference play). At a macro level, Iowa’s offense is led by guard Roy-Devyn Marble, who is averaging 13.6 points per game and forward Aaron White, who is averaging 13.4 points per game. White is one of only three Big Ten players to average 13.4 points and 5.9 rebounds or more per game this season. Iowa’s offense epitomizes a true ‘team’ effort as the Hawkeyes have assisted on 65.3% of their field goal makes (402 assists on 616 field goals), which ranks eighth-best in the nation.
From a technical standpoint, Iowa is 8-1 ATS versus elite opposition (i.e. teams with a win percentage between .600 and .800) and 10-2 ATS at home against teams that are outscoring their opponents by four or more points on the season. In addition, Iowa is a profitable 10-3 ATS off a win, 7-1 ATS off two or more consecutive wins and 18-7 ATS at home, whereas the Gophers are a money-burning 4-14 ATS in February and 3-12 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two consecutive games. Finally, Minnesota applies to a very negative 11-45-1 ATS road letdown situation that is predicated upon the Gophers’ improbable 58-53 overtime win over Wisconsin, whereas the Hawkeyes fall into a solid 31-5-1 ATS momentum angle of mine. Take Iowa and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports Consulting, LLC