Oskeim Sports Thursday Afternoon Best Bet: Toronto at Chicago

Jul 9, 2015


Toronto right-hander R.A. Dickey is 3-9 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season, including going 0-6 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.59 WHIP on the road and 0-3 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last three starts. The knuckleballer is also 0-3 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in six day starts in 2015. Let’s also note that Dickey is 2-3 with a career 8.69 ERA and 1.58 WHIP versus the White Sox, including yielding a combined 17 runs in his last sixteen innings against Chicago, a span covering three starts.

R.A. Dickey’s 2015 Metrics:

  • 5.22 FIP, 4.85 xFIP & 4.90 SIERA
  • 5.35 K/9, 3.51 BB/9 & 1.34 HR/9
  • 5.01 FIP on the road

Meanwhile, Chicago right-hander Jeff Samardzija is 3-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home and 1-0 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last three starts. Samardzija may have a 4.33 ERA in 2015, but his underlying metrics paint a much different pictcure: 3.50 FIP, 3.75 xFIP & 3.68 SIERA. The talanted hurler has been hurt by an unlucky .323 BABIP and a low 68.7% LOB%. I also like the fact that Samardzija owns a 2.50 FIP and 3.08 xFIP in fifty innings pitched at U.S. Cellular Field this season (8.28 K/9 & 1.26 BB/9).

Chicago also enters today’s game with a superior bullpen that owns a 2.94 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home and a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the last seven games. In contrast, Toronto relievers have a pedestrian 3.97 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road and a 4.85 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven contests.

From a technical standpoint, Toronto is a money-burning 14-30 in its last 44 road games versus teams with a winning home record, 2-7 in its last nine during game 4 of a series, 7-19 in Dickey’s last 26 road starts and 2-8 in his last ten as an underdog, including 1-8 as a road underdog.

With Chicago standing at 6-1 in its last seven games as a favorite and 5-1 in Samardzija’s last six starts as a favorite, take the White Sox as Oskeim Sports Best Bet and invest with confidence.

Oskeim Sports Free Best Bet Winner: Chicago White Sox