Oskeim Sports Starting Pitcher’s Report for Thursday, June 20, 2013

Jun 19, 2013

Thursday’s Top Starting Pitcher Team Trends:

  • Lance Lynn is 27-6 (+18.8 units) versus teams who strike out 7 or more times per game;
  • Lance Lynn is 31-7 (+22.8 units) when the total is between 7 and 8.5 runs;
  • Lance Lynn is 20-2 (+17.2 units) versus teams with a batting average of .255 or worse;
  • Jordan Zimmermann is 26-6 (+20.2 units) at night over the last two seasons;
  • Tommy Hanson is 10-2 (+10.4 units) as an underdog over the last two seasons;
  • Jason Marquis is 22-12 (+16.7 units) versus teams with an on base percentage of .325 or worse over the last three seasons.

Thursday’s Top Team Trends:

  • The Los Angeles Angels are 17-33 (-27.1 units) at night this season;
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers are 3-16 (-15.6 units) versus opposing pitchers who allow 5.5 or less hits per start on the season.

Miscellaneous Thoughts/Handicapping:

  • St. Louis right-hander Lance Lynn has a very favorable matchup against the Cubs as he is 18-3 (+13.4 units) versus division opponents over the last two seasons.  Meanwhile, Chicago is a money-burning 9-22 (-10.3 units) versus division foes, 41-72 (-21.6 units) at night, 33-72 (-22.9 units) as road underdogs and 9-30 (-19.2 units) versus an opposing pitcher with an ERA between 3.50 and 4.20.  Lynn is also 4-1 with a career 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP versus the Cubs.  Lynn also excels at home where he owns a career 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 138 IP.    
  • Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo has displayed elite skills over the last month, although his peripheral stats won’t tell you that fact.  Gallardo has been victimized by an unsustainable strand rate (69%) and hit rate (31%), both of which are well above/below the league averages.  Gallardo is coming off back-to-back shutouts over which time he has allowed just seven hits 14 innings of work (9/3 K/BB ratio).  From a technical standpoint, Gallardo is 44-17 (+17.8 units) as a favorite and 14-2 (+13.0 units) on the road after giving up no earned runs in his previous outing.  Let’s also note that Gallardo is 13-3 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in sixteen career starts against the Astros (106.2 IP).
  • Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey has become a rotation ace despite his 4-5 record this season. Bailey is 8-2 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in twelve career starts against the Pirates (79 IP).  The matchup could not be better for Bailey as the Pirates are batting .231 on the road this season where they are averaging 3.7 runs per game.
  • Roy Oswalt is set to make his Rockies debut tonight, but the optimism surrounding his start is tampered by the fact that he garnered a 5.80 ERA in 59 IP for Texas last season.  With that said, Oswalt had a 2.16 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in five starts for Double-A Tulsa this season.

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