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Since establishing Oskeim Sports Consulting, LLC in 2007, my ultra-rare 6* selections are a documented 19-6 (76%). My most recent 6* investment came in the NFL Playoffs last Saturday in the game between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers.  As always, my private clients received detailed analysis as to why the investment warranted such a substantial wager:

Green Bay Packers (-7) (-110) over Minnesota Vikings

Analysis: Green Bay is 56-34 ATS versus teams with a winning record during the second half of the season, including 33-18 ATS versus teams with a win percentage between .600 and .750. Let’s also note that Green Bay is a profitable 10-2 ATS versus division opponents, 19-7 ATS following a road game and 9-2 ATS after failing to cover the point spread, whereas the Vikings are a money-burning 4-13 ATS off an upset win at home and 2-12 ATS on the road following a win by three points or less. Moreover, NFL dome teams are 7-26 SU and 9-24 ATS when playing outdoors in the playoffs, and the Vikings were 0-4 SU and ATS outdoors during the 2012 regular season. Our investment on Green Bay is further enhanced by the fact that home teams in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 10-3-1 ATS following an upset loss, whereas playoff teams who had a .499 or worse record the previous season are 19-64 SU and 31-50-2 ATS. And, NFL playoff home teams who lost to their current opponent the previous week are 4-1 ATS.

The fundamental analysis is not as strong as the foregoing technical analysis as Green Bay is 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively (5.5 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.3 yards per play), while the Vikings are 0.2 yards per play better than average defensively (5.4 yards per play to teams that combine to average 5.6 yards per play). Similarly, Minnesota is 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively (5.6 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.5 yards per play), while the Packers are 0.3 yards per play better than average defensively (5.5 yards per play to teams that combine to average 5.8 yards per play). The difference will be the return of Green Bay wide receiver Randall Cobb, who averaged 9.2 yards per pass after teammate Jordy Nelson went down with an injury (Nelson returned last week in Minnesota). With both Cobb and Nelson at full strength, Aaron Rodgers will no longer have to rely upon Greg Jennings, who is averaging a pathetic 4.9 yards per pass this season. But, Jennings is coming off an excellent game last week wherein he caught 12 passes for 120 yards. Even without a healthy wide receiving corp., Rodgers threw ten touchdown passes without an interception in Green Bay’s last four games, including throwing for a season-high 365 yards against the Vikings defense that ranked 24th in the league against the pass (244.3 yards per game).

Green Bay’s defense also receives a major boost with the return of safety Charles Woodson, who has been cleared to play after missing the last nine games with a broken collarbone. “I mean, just what he’s meant to our defense, his playmaking ability, his ability to make plays at the line of scrimmage,” head coach Mike McCarthy said. “He’s extremely productive, so I’m just glad to have him back on the field.” The problem with Minnesota’s offense is its one-dimensionality that is incapable of throwing the ball downfield. Indeed, Minnesota is averaging 5.7 yards per pass play against teams that combine to allow 6.5 yards per pass play, thereby making the Vikings 0.8 yards per pass attempt worse than average offensively this season. I have also read reports that starting quarterback Christian Ponder was held out of practice on Wednesday due to stiffness in his throwing elbow, although the decision was made out of extreme precaution. Regardless of Ponder’s health, the fact remains that the Vikings are averaging a pathetic 4.8 yards per pass play on the road this season, and Lambeau Field is not exactly the ideal environment for a struggling and inexperienced quarterback. Lay the points and invest with confidence.

Similarly, my exclusive 5* selections have produced a documented 62.5% winners since the inception of Oskeim Sports in 2007.  Last Sunday, I featured a 5* investment in the game between the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens (-7) (-110) over Indianapolis Colts

Analysis: Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano’s struggle to defeat cancer is certainly an inspiration to all of us, but the Colts remain a below-average team on the football field. Specifically, Indianapolis is averaging 3.8 yards per rush attempt, 6.2 yards per pass attempt and 5.4 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 4.2 yards per rush play, 6.2 yards per pass play and 5.6 yards per play to mediocre offensive squads. Starting quarterback Andrew Luck continues to be overrated as evidenced by the fact that he averaged 6.2 yards per pass play against a group of secondaries that combined to allow 6.2 yards per pass play, while also throwing eighteen (18) interceptions. Overall, Indianapolis is 0.4 yards per rush attempt, 0.0 yards per pass attempt and 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively this season. It is hard to understand how the Colts made the playoffs in light of the fact that they were actually outgained 364 yards at 5.4 yards per play to 374 yards at 6.1 yards per play in 2012.

Baltimore Defense vs. Indianapolis Offense:

+0.5 yards per rush attempt advantage

+0.1 yards per pass attempt advantage

+0.4 yards per play advantage overall

Indianapolis also arrives in town with a pedestrian defense that is 0.9 yards per rush attempt, 0.7 yards per pass attempt and 0.8 yards per play worse than average. Meanwhile, Baltimore starting quarterback Joe Flacco is slightly underrated in that he averaged 6.3 yards per pass play against teams that combined to allow 6.2 yards per pass play to mediocre quarterbacks. Flacco has also started more playoff games than any of the other seven quarterbacks playing this weekend, and his success against a terrible Indianapolis secondary will be enhanced by the fact that the Colts cannot stop the run.

Baltimore Offense vs. Indianapolis Defense:

+1.1 yards per rush attempt advantage

+0.8 yards per pass attempt advantage

+0.9 yards per play advantage overall

From a technical standpoint, NFL dome teams are just 7-26 SU and 9-24 ATS outdoors in the playoffs, while the Colts are a money-burning 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six playoff openers on the road. Finally, Baltimore has the best special teams in the NFL and welcome back emotional leader Ray Lewis on defense. While Lewis is beyond his prime and does not make much of a difference physically on the field, both his emotional intensity and leadership qualities make a significant difference for the Ravens’ stop unit. Lay the points and invest with confidence.

If you are in the market for a sports handicapper, be sure to demand detailed analysis on all selections as you are entitled to understand why your investment advisor is recommending a particular selection.

 

 

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