Oskeim Sports’ NFL Totals Betting Market Report for Week 3

Sep 24, 2023

NFL totals, NFL totals picks, NFL totals betting

Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ NFL Totals Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Sunday’s NFL games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders UNDER 43 points

Report: Since 2012, NFL home underdogs in games with totals of 45 points or less are 58-41-2 to the Under (58.6%) in the first three weeks of the regular season, including 28-13 to the Under (68.3%) since 2019, covering the total by an average margin of 3.22 points per game. Since 2012, home underdogs in games with totals of 45 points or less are 58-40-2 to the Under (59.2%), including 28-12 Under (70%) since 2019, covering the total by an average of 3.6 points per game. Since 2009, AFC non-West teams that hosted the Raiders in their last game are 26-17-1 to the Under (60.5%), including 15-0-1 to the Under since November 13, 2017. Since 2015, NFL Game 3 road favorites of more than three points are 15-1 to the Under (93.8%).

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen likes to get out of the pocket, throwing a league-high three touchdown passes on those plays. However, the Commanders are tied for the league lead in sacks with ten and rank fourth in completion percentage allowed (33.3%) on dropbacks extended outside of the pocket. Washington cornerback Kendall Fuller has a league-best 9% target rate among corners with at least 50 coverage snaps, and 0.2 yards per coverage snap allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Buffalo’s offense has also become more conservative as Allen decreased his average air yards per play from 7.4 in Week 1 to 3.9 yards last week against the Raiders. Washington offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has done a great job with quarterback Sam Howell, who is two games into his first season as a full-time starter in the NFL. However, Bieniemy has utilized a lot of screens and short passes to prevent turnovers as Howell’s average depth of target is just 6.8, which is among the lowest in the league.

Since 2012, AFC road favorites are 48-25 to the Under (65.8%) versus NFC foes in games with totals of less than 48 points, including 27-8 to the Under since 2019, covering the total by an average of 4.4 points per game. Since 1989, NFL games with totals of less than 49 points between teams that both scored 35 or more points in their previous game are 34-18-1 to the Under (63.4%), including 1-7 to the Under since 2016.

Washington is 32-19 to the Under (62.7%) in all games since 2020. Washington is 21-12-2 to the Under (63.6%) following back-to-back wins since 2008, including 10-0-1 since November 4, 2018. Buffalo is 8-1 to the Under in road affairs since the beginning of the last season. Washington head coach Ron Rivera is 22-12 to the Under (64.7%) coming off an upset win as an underdog in his career, including 10-1 to the Under since October 6, 2019, and 6-0 to the Under since November 21, 2021. Finally, the Commanders are 5-1 to the Under in their last six non-conference home games and 5-1 to the Under following non-conference road games.

Weather Update: Tropical Storm Ophelia’s impact on the game will be nominal as much of the storm is expected to be out of the area by game time.

NFL Totals Betting Trends for Sunday, September 24

  • Since 2000, home underdogs in September primetime games are 34-14-1 Under (70.8%), covering the total by an average margin of 5.89 points per game. This situation is 31-9-1 Under (77.5%) since 2017 and 16-1 Under (94.1%) since September 21, 2017, covering the total by 7.24 points per game (6-0 L/5)
  • Since 2002, NFL road favorites are 73-34 Under (69%), including 25-9 Under (73%) in divisional affairs and 37-10 Under (79%) as favorites of three points or less
  • Since 2021, Unders are 189-141-1 (57.3%) when the total has dropped between the opening and closing lines, producing a net profit of +9.7%
  • Since 1998, NFL road teams in games with totals of 39 to 50 points off a road affair in which they allowed fewer than seven points are 27-5 Under (84.4%), including 14-1 Under (93.3%) since 2014

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