Oskeim Sports’ NFL Betting Preview & Free Picks – 10/29

Oct 29, 2023

NFL betting Preview, free NFL betting preview, best NFL betting preview

Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ NFL Betting preview!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information and free picks on Sunday’s NFL games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos UNDER 46 points (-110)

Report: Since 2008, divisional home underdogs with revenge for a road loss are 162-127-7 to the Under (56.1%), including 37-24 UNDER (60.7%) since 2020. NFL divisional home underdogs that went under the total in the previous meeting with their opponent are 83-57-6 to the Under (59.3%) since 2015, including 29-16-2 UNDER (64.4%) since 2021, covering the total by an average margin of -2.8 points per game. Since 2010, NFL road favorites of seven or more points with better yards per play and third-down percentage averages are 100-64-4 to the Under (39%), including 72-42-3 UNDER (63.2%) since 2015, covering the total by an average of -2.44 points per game.

NFL road favorites are 152-94-5 to the Under (61.8%) since 2021 and 92-46-4 UNDER (66.7%) since 2022, going under by an average of -2.25 points per game in that span. NFL road favorites of more than three points are 113-84-7 to the Under (57.4%) since 2014, including 25-15-1 UNDER (62.5%) since 2022. Finally, the Broncos are 28-2 to the Under (93.3%) since October 1, 2017, coming off a game as favorites in which they had 27:00 or more minutes of possession time, covering the total by an average of -7.6 points per game.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (+1) (-110)

Report: Green Bay returns home off a 19-17 loss at Denver, which is significant in that the Packers are 18-10 ATS following a loss since 2018. Since 2016, NFL teams coming off a game in Denver are 35-21-2 ATS in their next game, including 21-11-2 ATS over the last five seasons. Head coach Matt LaFleur is a profitable 45-32 ATS during his tenure with Green Bay and is the third-most profitable coach in the NFL since 2019. LaFleur is 24-14 ATS inside the friendly confines of Lambeau Field, 16-8 ATS as an underdog, and 14-7 ATS following a loss, covering the spread by an average of +2.6 points per game.

Minnesota arrives off an upset win over the 49ers on Monday Night Football, which is significant in that the Vikings are just 14-24 ATS following a win since 2019. Since 2020, teams coming off a game against San Francisco are 19-39 SU and 22-34-2 ATS in their next game, including 4-19 SU and 5-16-2 ATS since the start of the 2022-23 season. Since 2001, NFL teams coming off an upset win as underdogs are 28-68 SU (29%) in their next game when playing on short rest. Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins is 29-42-2 ATS following a win in his career, the second-least profitable mark among quarterbacks over the last 20 years.

Since 2008, NFC favorites of two points or less are 58-77-2 SU and 53-80-4 ATS (39.8%) versus non-NFC East teams, including 8-25 SU and 8-25 ATS (24.2%) since 2019, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -5.03 points per game. These NFL favorites are 16-44 SU and 14-46-2 ATS (23.3%) in road affairs since 2016, failing to cover by an average -5.8 points per game. Since 1989, divisional road favorites of less than three points coming off a non-divisional win by less than three points are 34-51 ATS (40%) versus opponents entering off a loss by fewer than five points, falling short of market expectations by an average of -4.14 points per game.

Finally, my math model favors Green Bay by nearly three points in this game and the Packers are 17-9 ATS in divisional affairs since 2018.

NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, October 29

  • NFC teams entering off consecutive games in which they scored fewer than ten points are 9-0 to the Under in games with totals of 40 to 51 points over the last four seasons
  • NFL favorites coming off a Monday night affair are 75-58-2 to the Under (56.4%) since 2016, including 29-12-1 UNDER (70.7%) since 2021, going under by an average of -3.6 points per game
  • Since 2015, NFL home underdogs of fewer than four points in games with totals of 45 points or less are 128-84-7 to the Under (60.4%), including 60-19-2 UNDER (75.9%) since 2020, going under by an average of -3.7 points per game.

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