Oskeim Sports’ NFL Betting Preview & Free Picks – 10/15

Oct 14, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ NFL Betting preview!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information and free picks on Sunday’s NFL games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (+10) (-110) 

Analysis: San Francisco has won fifteen consecutive regular season games, tying the franchise record set between 1989-90, and face a Cleveland team missing both quarterback Deshaun Watson and running back Nick Chubb.  However, my math model favors the 49ers by less than ten points and opposing teams have had just six red zone attempts against Cleveland’s defense this season, the fewest in the NFL.  Cleveland’s stop unit is limiting opponents to a league-low 22.6% third down conversion rate, while 17.6% of opponent’s drives have resulted in an offensive score (lowest in NFL).

Since 1989, NFL home underdogs of more than two points that are averaging 30-plus rushing attempts per game are 95-37-4 ATS (72%) versus teams coming off a home win, covering the spread by an average of +4.65 points per game.  Since 2005, NFL underdogs of three or more points are 277-203-11 ATS (57.7%) following a loss of 20 or more points.  Since 1995, NFL home underdogs are 175-112-10 ATS (61%) if they are projected to be road favorites the following week, covering the spread by an average of +3.82 points per game.

Undefeated NFL road favorites from Week 5 out are 18-34 ATS (34.6%) since 2020, failing to cover the spread by an average of -3.23 points per game.  Since 1991, NFL road favorites coming off three consecutive home games are 37-58 ATS (38.8%), including 33.3% ATS since 2019, falling short of market expectation by an average of -6.86 points per game.   Finally, Cleveland is 10-4 ATS (71%) vs. non-conference foes since 2020.

Carolina Panthers (+14) (-110) at Miami Dolphins

Report: Carolina is the only team without a win this season, which is significant in that winless road teams from Week 6 out are 76-43-4 ATS (63.9%) since 1989, covering the spread by an average of +2.24 points per game.  Since 1989, winless NFL underdogs are 136-89-6 ATS (60.4%) from Week 6 forward.  Since 2003, winless road teams are 110-76-4 ATS (59.1%) in Weeks 3-6, including 36-19-2 ATS (65.5%) since 2018, covering the spreads by an average of +2.56 points per game.  Since 1999, NFL underdogs that have not covered a point spread prior to Week 12 are 266-198-13 ATS (57.3%), including 84-57-5 ATS (59.6%) since 2016.

Since 2000, non-divisional road teams coming off a double-digit loss that won 9 or fewer games the previous season are 75-45-1 ATS (62.5%) versus opponents that had more wins the prior season.  Since 2006, NFL road underdogs of 3-14 points off a loss in which they committed three-plus turnovers are 119-91-10 ATS (56.7%) in games with totals of greater than 43 points, including 30-9-6 ATS (76.9%) since 2019.  Since 1999, NFL underdogs in Weeks 2-11 that have not covered a point spread are 266-198-13 ATS (57.3%), including 84-57-5 ATS (59.6%) since 2016.  Carolina also applies to a very good 49-15-2 ATS (76.6%) system that dates back to 1990 and invests on winless road underdogs with certain scoring margins in their last four games.  This situation is 18-4 ATS (81.8%) since October 6, 2013.

Since 1992, NFL teams that are covering the spreads by an average of at least five points per game are 117-181-8 ATS (39.3%) from Week 5 out versus .250 or worse opposition.  Since 2001, NFL teams that have produced a combined 1,350 or more yards of total offense in their last three games are 95-140-4 ATS (40.4%), including 25-59-1 ATS (29.8%) since 2017, failing to cover the spread by an average of -3.61 points per game.  Finally, NFL teams averaging 35 or more points per game are just 29-45-2 ATS (39.2%) since 2000 versus opponents averaging 20 or fewer points per game.

Finally, Carolina has a bye on deck, which is significant in that the Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games prior to a week of rest, including 5-1 ATS versus AFC foes.

NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, October 15

  • Since 2002, NFL divisional underdogs coming off a non-division loss by seven-plus points in which they had fewer than 19 first downs are 144-99-7 ATS (59.3%), including 42-14-2 ATS since 2018, covering the spread by an average of +4.5 points per game
  • Since 2014, NFL home favorites coming off a loss are 140-199-8 ATS (41.3%) versus teams that aren’t on extended losing streaks, including 57-100-3 ATS (36.3%) since 2019
  • Since 2000, non-divisional road teams coming off a double-digit loss that won 9 or fewer games the previous season are 75-45-1 ATS (62.5%) versus opponents that had more wins the prior season

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