Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ NFL Betting preview! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information and free picks on Sunday’s NFL games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) (-110) at Los Angeles Chargers
Report: Since 2003, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points that won fewer than seven games the previous season are 382-278-18 ATS (57.9%) in games with totals of 50 points or less, including 76-44-4 ATS (63.3%) since 2019. These teams improve to 157-83-11 ATS (65.4%) in the first four weeks of the regular season, covering the spread by an average of +3.2 points per game.
Since 1994, AFC road underdogs of 3.5 to 7.5 points coming off a non-division game in which they underperformed offensively are 132-94-5 ATS (58.4%), including 34-8-1 ATS (81%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average of +4.86 points per game. Since 2005, NFL divisional home favorites are just 225-300-15 ATS (42.9%) in the first ten weeks of the regular season, including 51-72-1 ATS (41.5%) since 2019.
Since 1989, Week 4 NFL favorites coming off a win are 14-32 ATS (30.4%) versus teams that don’t have revenge, falling short of market expectations by -3.0 points per game. Since 1989, one-win NFL home favorites are 37-63-2 ATS (37%) in Week 4 of the regular season, including going 33% ATS since 2017. Finally, AFC underdogs of seven points or less are 243-183-13 ATS (57%) versus conference opponents since 2017.
Betting Systems and Trends Favoring the Chargers
- Since 1990, NFL home favorites of -6 to -13 with a bye on deck are 111-63-1 ATS (63.8%), including 66.7% ATS since 2019
- Since 1991, NFL home (or neutral) favorites of at least six points are 104-52-3 ATS (66.7%) with extended rest before their next game, covering the spread by an average margin of +4.08 points per game in that span.
Washington Commanders (+9) (-110) at Philadelphia Eagles
Report: Since 2005, NFL underdogs of at least three points coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 275-202-10 ATS (57.7%), including 34-21 ATS (61.8%) since 2021, covering the spread by an average of +2.64 points per game. Since 2002, NFL divisional underdogs coming off a non-divisional loss by 7-plus points in which they had less than nineteen first downs are 141-99-7 ATS (58.8%), including 39-14-2 ATS (73.6%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average of +4.04 points per game.
Since 2005, NFL divisional home favorites are just 225-300-15 ATS (42.9%) in the first ten weeks of the regular season, including 51-72-1 ATS (41.5%) since 2019. Since 1993, NFL teams that have allowed no more than 60 rushing yards per game on average in their last three games are 167-223-16 ATS (42.8%).
Finally, Washington is 33-18-2 ATS (64.7%) since 2001 in games with totals of less than 54 points versus teams averaging 145-plus rushing yards per game over their last three games, including 11-1-2 ATS (91.7%) since 2018.
NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, October 1
- NFL teams coming off a game in which they scored nine points or less are 157-99-4 ATS (61%; +19% ROI) if their opponent is attracting most of the betting money
- NFL divisional road underdogs of +1.5 to +5.5 points coming off a loss as home favorites are 58-23-1 ATS (71.6%) since 1989, including a perfect 9-0 ATS since December 30, 2018. These teams have covered the spread by an average margin of +6.52 points per game
- Since 2014, AFC South favorites of less than three points (or underdogs) coming off a divisional upset win as underdogs are 17-7 ATS (70.8%), including 14-3 ATS (82.3%) since October 8, 2017, and 11-2 ATS (84.6%) since December 6, 2018
- In NFL history, teams that scored 60 or more points in their previous game are 0-7 ATS the following week.
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