Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ NFL Betting preview! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Sunday’s NFL games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+5) (-110)
Report: Since 2009, divisional underdogs in season openers are 50-25-2 ATS (66.7%), covering the spread by an average margin of +3.4 points per game. These divisional underdogs have been even better since 2015, going 26-12-1 ATS (68.4%), covering the spread by an average of +4.6 points per game. Since 2004, divisional home underdogs in September affairs are 72-45-1 ATS (61.5%), including 18-9 ATS (66.7%) since 2018. Since 2009, week 1 divisional home underdogs are 16-7-2 SU and 21-4 ATS (84%), including 10-1 ATS since September 13, 2015, and 7-0 ATS since September 10, 2017.
Since 2011, week 1 divisional home underdogs with totals of less than 48 points are a 9-2-2 straight-up and 13-0 ATS, winning by an average of +7.0 points per game and covering the spread by an average of +11.46 points per game. Since 1990, week 1 divisional teams that played in the playoffs the previous season are 16-41 ATS (28.1%) versus non-playoff teams from the prior season, failing to cover the spread by an average of -4.11 points per game.
Since 1992, week 1 teams that finished above .500 the previous season are 63-97-5 ATS (39.4%) versus teams that finished below .500 the prior season. Week 1 divisional road favorites of -2.5 to -5.5 points are 17-27 ATS (38.6%) since 1989, including 1-10-1 straight-up and 0-12 ATS since September 10, 2010. Since 2012, week 1 AFC divisional road favorites are 0-8 ATS, failing to cover the Vegas number by an average of -10.56 points per game.
Since 1992, week 1 teams that lost ten or more games the previous season are 113-75-5 ATS (60.1%) versus teams that had fewer than ten losses the prior season, including 51-30-3 ATS (63%) since 2011, covering the spread by an average of +3.61 points per game. Since 1999, single-digit underdogs in the first three weeks of the season are 244-168-17 ATS (59.2%) if they won fewer than seven games the previous season, including 8-1-1 ATS since September 12, 2022.
Since 1989, week 1 underdogs that won fewer than six games the previous season are 132-91-7 ATS (59.2%), including 17-10-1 ATS (63%) since 2019 and 9-4 ATS (69.2%) since September 14, 2020. Since 2017, AFC underdogs of seven points or less are 234-177-13 ATS (56.9%) versus conference opponents, including 87-61-3 ATS (58.8%) since 2021. Finally, since 1989, week 1 divisional road favorites of -2.5 to -5.5 points are 17-27 ATS (38.6%), including 1-10-1 straight-up and 0-12 ATS since September 10, 2010.
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at Denver Broncos
Report: Since 1999, single-digit underdogs in the first three weeks of the season are 244-168-17 ATS (59.2%) if they won fewer than seven games the previous season, including 8-1-1 ATS since September 12, 2022. Since 1995, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points that won fewer than seven games the previous season are 585-455-33 ATS (56.2%), including 92-54-4 ATS (63%) since 2019.
Since 1995, road underdogs of less than seven points that won fewer than seven games the previous season are 154-81-10 ATS (65.5%) in the first four weeks of the regular season, covering the spread by an average of +3.3 points per game. These road underdogs are at their best in season openers, going 53-21-6 ATS (71.6%) since 1989 with a +5.31 points per game ATS margin of victory.
The above-referenced 585-455-33 ATS system also contains profitable 93-52-6 ATS (64.1%) and 73-46-6 ATS (61.3%) subset angles. Since 1989, week 1 road underdogs of less than a touchdown that won two or fewer road games the previous season are 46-19-5 ATS (70.8%), including 72.7% ATS since September 12, 2016. Since 2009, divisional underdogs in season openers are 50-25-2 ATS (66.7%), covering the spread by an average margin of +3.4 points per game. These divisional underdogs have been even better since 2015, going 26-12-1 ATS (68.4%), covering the spread by an average of +4.6 points per game.
Since 1999, week 1 road underdogs that didn’t make the playoffs the previous season are 104-68-5 ATS (60.5%), including 8-2 ATS (80%) since September 13, 2020. Since 2017, AFC underdogs of seven points or less are 234-177-13 ATS (56.9%) versus conference opponents, including 87-61-3 ATS (58.8%) since 2021. NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 49-21-5 ATS (70%) since 2004, generating a return of +34.5% in that span.
Week 1 favorites with revenge for a loss the prior season are 15-22 SU and 13-24 ATS (35.1%) over the last eleven seasons. The Raiders enter the 2023-24 season undervalued as they were only outscored by 23 points last year and were 4-9 in one-score games. Finally, Las Vegas quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-7 SU and 17-5 ATS as an underdog in his career.
Join Oskeim Sports today and save 20% on your first purchase at the online store!