Xavier (+3) (-110) over Creighton
Analysis: Xavier is a profitable 9-2 ATS versus elite teams that are outscoring their opposition by eight or more points per game on the season, including a perfect 6-0 ATS at home. The Musketeers also remain underrated as evidenced by the fact that they are 34-21 ATS over the last two seasons, including 18-8 ATS as underdogs, 6-0 ATS as home underdogs, 22-11 ATS versus conference opponents and 9-2 ATS when playing with revenge. This season, Xavier is 11-4 ATS after covering the spread and 13-4 ATS following a win so I expect another focused effort from the Musketeers tonight.
Xavier’s success is predicated upon a very good defense that is allowing 66.9 points per game to teams that would combine to average 71.9 points per game, thereby making the Musketeers 5.0 points per game better than average defensively. Even better news for Xavier investors is the fact that the Musketeers are 14-1 SU and 9-4 ATS at home this season where they are limiting opponents to a mere 62.6 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field. Offensively, Xavier is 4.0 points per game better than average (72.5 points per game against teams that would combine to allow just 68.5 points per game), but the Musketeers are much better at home where they are averaging 75.5 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the floor.
My math model only favors Creighton by two points and the Musketeers apply to a very good 56-21 ATS home underdog situation of mine that invests on certain teams off a SU and ATS road win, provided they are getting five or less points in their next game. With Xavier standing at 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games, take the Musketeers and invest with confidence.