Oskeim Sports Free Premium Baseball Winner: Sunday, July 5

Jul 5, 2015


Arizona right-hander Rubby De La Rosa takes the mound in excellent form with a 1.83 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over his last three starts. The 26-year-old is also 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in day games and 4-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at home this season. The right-hander ended June by going 2-0 with a 1.30 ERA over his last four starts. He allowed no more than two runs in any of those starts and completed seven innings in three of them.

While his overall surface statistics are nothing to get too excited about, De La Rosa boasts very good underlying metrics:

Rubby De La Rosa’s 2015 Metrics:

4.11 FIP & 3.25 xFIP
3.37 SIERA
8.32 K/9 & 22.1% K%
3.49 FIP & 2.93 xFIP at home (9.54 K/9)
3.14 xFIP in June (8.36 K/9)

De La Rosa is a perfect 2-0 with a career 2.50 ERA and 1.05 WHIP versus the Rockies, including an outing last month wherein he limited Colorado to one run over seven innings. De La Rosa now faces a scuffling Colorado lineup that is batting a woeful .233 with a .277 on base percentage on the road (3.4 runs per game) and .189 with a .249 on base percentage over the last ten days (2.3 runs per game).

I also like the fact that Arizona’s bullpen has garnered some solid numbers in 2015: a 3.31 ERA and 1.29 WHIP versus division opponents, a 3.63 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in day games and a 2.31 and 1.24 WHIP in the last seven games (23.3 IP; 22 K). In contrast, Colorado’s relief staff has posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season, including a 6.18 ERA and 1.66 WHIP versus division foes and a 6.60 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over the last seven games.

Meanwhile, Colorado southpaw Jorge De La Rosa compiled a 4.63 FIP and 4.42 xFIP in the month of June, posting an atrocious 4.86 BB/9 rate. What is even more alarming is the fact that De La Rosa posted those numbers despite being the beneficiary of extraordinary good luck: .257 BABIP and 83.7% LOB%. The lefty now faces an Arizona lineup that is averaging 5.3 runs over the last ten days.

From a technical standpoint, Colorado is a money-burning 23-64 on the road, 19-57 on the road versus right-handed starters, 11-42 in the road versus teams with a winning home record and 0-8 in De La Rosa’s last eight starts in Arizona. The Diamondbacks are 37-15 at home in this series, including 8-2 in the last eight meetings overall. With Arizona standing at 7-2 in its last nine games as a favorite, take the Diamondbacks and invest with confidence.

Oskeim Sports Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks